Bearish on $SUI : A Clear Warning from a Long-time Sui User

I’m not a professional trader, but as a seasoned user of the Sui blockchain, I feel obligated to share why I’m bearish on Sui right now.

It’s not about Sui’s long-term future, but at its current price, I genuinely believe it’s overvalued.

1. FDV is inflated: Sui’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) has reached $22 billion, while Solana’s FDV sits at $92 billion. That’s only a 4x difference! Solana has proven its worth—so why should Sui be valued at a quarter of Solana’s potential? Sui’s upside compared to Solana is extremely limited at this point. If you think Solana is undervalued, you’re dreaming if you believe Sui deserves to be here.

2. The ecosystem is propped up: Sure, Sui is fast and user-friendly, but as someone deep in Sui’s DeFi space, I can tell you the ecosystem relies heavily on subsidies. They are throwing Sui tokens at DeFi protocols to pump Total Value Locked (TVL). This might create activity, but it’s not sustainable. If you think a blockchain can succeed purely on this strategy, you’re missing the bigger picture—there’s no real innovation here, just recycled ideas from old DeFi models.

3. TVL is inflated: The core of Sui’s TVL game is to pump Sui tokens, and they are using Sui itself as collateral. This artificially boosts TVL by leveraging Sui’s price, but it’s built on shaky ground. I’ve started shorting Sui with low leverage—1x, small amounts, and very cautiously. The whales behind Sui are tough, but the inflated value won’t last forever.

Bottom line: Sui’s current valuation is detached from reality. As a long-time user, I urge you to stay cautious. Don’t get blinded by the hype—this inflated market won’t hold up.