One key on-chain metric for understanding Bitcoin market behavior is the realized price UTXO age bands. This metric highlights the average price at which Bitcoin holders acquired their coins, broken down by how long they’ve held them.
Historically, the realized price of Bitcoin holders in the 3-6 months (short-term) and 6-12 months (long-term) cohorts have served as critical support or resistance levels. When Bitcoin struggles to break above the average buy price of these groups, it often signifies a bearish trend. Conversely, if Bitcoin can break above this realized price, it suggests growing bullish momentum, as new buyers are willing to hold even at higher levels.
At present, Bitcoin’s price is hovering between the realized prices of these two groups:
- $64K for the short-term holders (3-6 months)
- $55K for the long-term holders (6-12 months)
Bitcoin recently surged toward the 3-6 month holders’ realized price of $64K, indicating a test of this key resistance level. A successful breakthrough above this level could signal further upward momentum and a potential continuation of the bullish trend. However, if Bitcoin fails to break above this zone, it may suggest renewed selling pressure from short-term holders, leading to bearish retracements toward the $55K level.
Written by ShayanBTC
