The data from CryptoQuant on October 6th reveals that new BTC whales have pumped $108 billion this year, which is 13 times more. This unprecedented flip represents 48.8% of Bitcoin’s total realized cap and is almost at par with Old Whales’ $113 billion. The latter has the highest absolute numbers, reflecting the significant impact of the change in the market.
The realized cap aims to determine Bitcoin’s value when coins were last used by providing the price of each unspent transaction output (UTXO). The logic of this indicator provides a vision in which a degree of value has been deposited in the form of Bitcoin. New whales raised as the realized capitalization bottomed at 31.768 BTC, or 18.2% of Bitcoin, on October 6th, a new record in spot volumes since May 2021.
Defining New Bitcoin Whales and Their Impact
According to CryptoQuant, new whales are addresses that hold over 1,000 BTC but hold them for less than 155 days and do not include those associated with centralized exchanges or miners. This recent inflow of investment shows a market dominance shift whereby new whales are fast approaching the status of the early whales. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, described this movement as a “generational shift,” predicting that the realized cap of new whales will soon overtake the older whales.
On-Chain Data Reveals New Trends
On October 8, Bitcoin’s network saw a break in an 11-month downtrend of inactive addresses. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, pointed out that while active addresses have not been as accurate in the last four years, this rebound shows that all the main crypto indicators are growing naturally organically.
However, Coutts also pointed out that the rising activity on Bitcoin’s Layer 2 solutions, namely the Lightning Network, and the changes in the on-chain activity caused by Ordinals and NFTs affected the network dynamics.
Short-Term Holder Sentiment and Market Volatility
A Glassnode report dated October 8 showed that the short-term Bitcoin holders have a profit ratio of 1.2, indicating that these BTC holders are closer to profitability. The near-term trends are influenced by short-term holders since the latter are pure sentiments of the new and vibrant market.
While indicators derived from on-chain data show multiple signs of positivity, the market is still sensitive and may react unpredictably. Macroeconomic factors and flows in the open interest volume in Bitcoin futures contracts hint at rising expectations, which may cause volatile markets. Deleveraging pressures and liquidations further contribute to potential price fluctuations.
Key Pricing Levels and Investor Behavior
Knowing the financial pressure different investor groups exert is crucial when estimating Bitcoin’s market movement. The cost base for short-term holders recently rose above the required $62,500 mark. Nonetheless, new buyers might feel pressure when Bitcoin is below this level.
The True Market Mean has recently hit $47,000, and the Active Investor Price is around $52,500, which are important indicators of the macro view on Bitcoin. In the year so far, the spot price of Bitcoin has started staying mostly above these levels, which further props up a healthy market. However, the extent of vulnerability to price shocks implies that any movements in the prices could greatly influence investors’ profitability.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has been slightly down, with the current value being $62,253.76, a 0.05% drop. However, the graph presents several steep oscillations up to $62.75K with a low of about $62.00K. Market activity is lower mainly due to total trading volume, which has declined by 19.91% from the previous month to $26.79 billion.
Conclusion
The current increase in newly acquired whales and active addresses is one dominant period for Bitcoin. All of this suggests that the relative market dynamics are shifting as new whales approach parity with older investors in terms of realized cap. Short-term shareholders run after the profits, and even long-term shareholders are not shielded from the ups and downs that it entails in terms of speculative bubbles and international economies. Due to these occurrences, the following are vital in driving our analysis of its short-run fluctuations and its long-run motion.
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