💵 The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $33.1 billion in one week!
▪️ Goolsbee, Fed Chairman:
- The vast majority of Fed chairmen expect a significant interest rate cut in the next 18 months.
▪️ Goldman Sachs:
- Today's Nonfarm Payrolls report makes a 50 bp decline in November less likely.
- We forecast the Fed to cut the rate by 25 bp at its meetings in November and December.
▪️ JPMorgan and Bank of America:
- We expect the Fed to cut the rate by 25 bps in November. (previously = 50 bps)
📌 Market expectations ( #FED ):
- November 7: a decrease of 25 bp to 4.50-4.75% (the probability is already 96.2%) ❗️
- December 18: a decrease of 25 bp to 4.25-4.50%.
- January 29, 2025: a reduction of 25 bps to 4.00-4.25%.
- March 19, 2025: reduction by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%.