Users of the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket noted there's a 13% chance that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will mention "crypto" at the Sept. 10 presidential debate.
Accompanied with its $101,125 bet, the prediction sits low on the list of possible mentions — comparable to the 19% odds of Trump saying "alien" three or more times during the event. Users predict that Trump is most likely to say "abortion" at 81% and least likely to say "Epstein," in reference to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, at 5%, Polymarket wrote on the social media platform X.
Polymarket's popularity has grown due to interest in betting on the United State's 2024 presidential election. The platform's open interest surpassed $100 million on Sept. 5 — a 1,429% increase since the start of the year. The site, which is unavailable to U.S. users, brought in $473 million in trading volume in August among over 63,600 active traders, The Block's Data Dashboard shows.
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Betting markets, platforms where users are allowed to wager on the outcome of future events, are a growing sector in crypto. In theory these sites offer an unbiased view because users have "skin in the game."
Though Polymarket's has attracted high attention among betters, Blast contributor Pacman noted its competitors, such as predictdotfun, offer deeper ask and bid liquidity within 1% of the mark price. Predictdotfun is a yield-bearing prediction market that went live on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Blast on Sept. 5.
Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris are set to debate at 9:00 p.m. ET on Sept. 10 in Philadelphia's National Convention Center. The event marks the first debate between Harris and Trump and the second presidential debate for the 2024 election. The former president is currently polling ahead of Harris to win the U.S. election at 52% on Polymarket.
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