After several months of downward movement, Bitcoin may be poised for a three-month rally, with some analysts predicting a breakout above $92,000.
Bitcoin’s price could be on the brink of a three-month rally based on historical post-halving chart patterns.
Bitcoin (BTC) recently retested a key support level on the weekly chart, which could set it up for a rally above $90,000, according to popular analyst Titan of Crypto.
The analyst wrote in a Sept. 13 X post:
“In previous cycles, when the price retested the 50-week simple moving average, it bounced at least 40%. On average, the bounce was 71%. If #BTC rallies 71% from here, it could reach $92,000.”
BTC/USD, 1-week chart. Source: Titan of Crypto
Bitcoin recovered above the $60,000 psychological mark on Sept. 14, for the first time since Aug. 30. Bitcoin price is in an over three-month downtrend, during which it fell over 9%, according to Bitstamp data.
BTC/USD, 3-month chart. Source: TradingView
Historical chart patterns suggest a three-month Bitcoin rally
September has historically been a month of poor performance for Bitcoin price, with average returns at -4.69%, making it the most bearish month based on average returns, according to CoinGlass data.
However, Bitcoin price has historically rallied for three consecutive months after September’s downtrend.
Bitcoin average monthly returns, percentage. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin averages 22.9% returns for October, 46.8% for October — historically the second-best month for Bitcoin price — and 5.4% average monthly returns for December.
During the previous Bitcoin halving year, 2020, the price rose over 27% in October and over 42% in November in a six-month rally that lasted until March 2021.
Last dip buying opportunity before the Bitcoin breakout?
This current correction could be the last potential buying opportunity before the next leg up, according to popular crypto trader Mags, who wrote in a Sept. 15 X post:
“Bitcoin gives three chances to buy before it goes parabolic… The last is right after the halving. This could be your last chance to buy Bitcoin cheap before it goes parabolic.”
BTC/USD, post-halving cycle. Source: Mags
Pseudonymous onchain analyst Checkmate also pointed out that Bitcoin is positioning in the exact same way as during the previous two bull cycles. He wrote in a Sept. 14 X post:
“Bitcoin is in the exact same spot as the last two cycles since the low. I prefer the cycle low comparison the most as it describes the psychological time it takes for investors to recover from a bear market.”
Source: Checkmate
However, Bitcoin’s “anxiety stage” threatens more potential September downside, ahead of the next leg up, which could be catalyzed by the next Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 18.
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