The market for long and short positions has seen significant intensification, and many believe this is due to the Bank of Japan's recent actions to ease market tension, causing cryptocurrencies like $BTC to move in sync.
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Here’s my view👇 (No need for lengthy comments, just clear and concise thoughts):
1. The crypto market is highly volatile. Some believe that factors like the German government's coin sales, U.S. government transfers, and the Federal Reserve's talk of rate cuts are contributing to this volatility. Japan, it seems, couldn't remain passive. However, it's crucial not to get swept away by the surface and to consider deeper implications.
2. The crypto market has evolved into a complex environment with significant amounts of hot money flowing in. With minimal regulation and 24/7 global trading, large investors hold a considerable advantage in this landscape.
3. On-chain data shows that 358,000 BTC have been moved to permanent holder addresses in the past month (Figure 1). Additionally, global spot ETF inflows reached 53,000 BTC in July, marking an all-time high. Clearly, the market is seeing substantial buying on dips.
4. On a micro level, over the past 48 hours, 100 wallets have collectively purchased 2,800 $BTC (Figure 2), further indicating that many are buying on dips.
5. Hot money enters the market with the intent to profit quickly. In the crypto space, contracts have turned into a zero-sum game between retail and large investors. Large investors manipulate the market in several ways:
(1) Acquiring substantial amounts of coins at low prices in the spot market, creating a bullish environment that convinces the masses that prices will continue rising beyond 70,000, thereby luring long positions;
(2) Leveraging international events to shape expectations; for instance, the Japanese yen's interest rate hike on July 31 briefly lifted the financial markets. Despite a slight dip in BTC at the time, many still went long. The proportion of long positions rose from 60.09% on July 30 to 74% on August 4 (Figure 3), signaling danger, which became evident on August 5...
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