Bitcoin whales have been actively accumulating significant amounts of the cryptocurrency over the past month during the market slump.
On-chain activity has revealed that over 404,448 BTC, valued at approximately $22.8 billion, has been moved to permanent holder addresses in the last 30 days.
Bitcoin Whale Accumulation
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted this in an August 6 post on X, saying, “I’m pretty sure something is happening behind the scenes.”
This was in reference to an increase in 30-day demand change for permanent BTC holders. Ki Young Ju observed in late July that bitcoin appears to be in a distinct accumulation phase, with 358,000 BTC moved to permanent holder addresses during the month. He also pointed out that global spot ETF inflows accounted for an additional 53,000 BTC in July.
He stated, “Though not all remaining BTC is in custody wallets, whales are clearly accumulating. And it’s an unprecedented level.”
Ki also predicted that within a year, entities such as traditional finance institutions, companies, or governments might announce substantial bitcoin acquisitions in Q3 2024.
He warned retail investors that they might regret not buying during the current period of uncertainty, which includes fears about potential large sell-offs by the German government and the Mt. Gox trustee and broader macroeconomic concerns.
More Bullish Indicators
In another post on X, Ki highlighted several bullish factors supporting the current market conditions.
The hashrate recovery indicates that miner capitulation is nearing its end, with the metric approaching all-time highs. U.S. mining costs are approximately $43,000 per BTC, suggesting stability in hashrate unless bitcoin prices dip below this threshold.
Furthermore, retail investors are largely absent, which is similar to the market conditions in mid-2020. Additionally, old whales sold their holdings to new whales between March and June, reducing significant selling pressure from these long-term holders.
However, Ki also identified some bearish factors to consider. Macro risks could lead to forced sell-offs, as evidenced by large crypto deposits from Jump Trading and a year-to-date high in daily deposits on Binance. Some on-chain indicators have turned bearish, however borderline. If these bearish trends persist for over two weeks, market recovery could face challenges.
Ki concluded with a cautiously optimistic outlook, stating that, based on the current data, he believed the bull market was still intact. He mentioned that if the market did not recover within two weeks, he would reassess the situation.
Ki added that he followed “smart money,” so if his assessment was incorrect, it could mean that the new whales either misunderstood the situation or underestimated the macroeconomic environment.
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