Since the April 20 Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin (BTC) price has been consolidating in a wide range that extends from $58,000 to $72,000. However, according to technical chart patterns and various indicators, Bitcoin price could be on the verge of a breakout. The key question that remains is when will Bitcoin break out of consolidation?
Bitcoin priced poised for a “September breakout”
According to popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin could potentially break out of consolidation in September.
In a July 30 X post, the analyst wrote,
“Bitcoin is still on track for a September breakout.”
Rekt Capital explained that while Bitcoin failed to break out of the reaccumulation range in the 100 days following the Bitcoin halving in April, such a breakout was “always going to be unlikely.”
The reaccumulation range refers to the period where buyers accumulate more BTC in anticipation of more upward price movement.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is seemingly trading in a descending parallel channel, which suggests further upside momentum if the price is able to reclaim $65,000, according to the analyst.
“Hold $65,000 as support, and Bitcoin will be able to revisit the top of this pattern over time. At worst, Bitcoin would upside wick into the low of $70,000s (blue circle). At best, Bitcoin would break out from this structure entirely.”
According to independent analyst Jelle, based on technical chart patterns, Bitcoin’s price could reverse and break out to the $100,000 mark in the following months. This is the target of a multi-year falling wedge.
Related: Crypto ready for next phase of adoption: Winning over financial advisers
Bitcoin consolidation could be ending - Bollinger Bands
Anticipation of an “explosive move” in BTC price lingers in the background, as suggested by Bitcoin’s volatility indicator.
For popular trader and analyst Matthew Hyland, tightening Bollinger Bands conditions on the weekly timeframes indicates that a significant breakout is imminent.
The width of the Bollinger Bands, a classic volatility and momentum indicator, is currently at its “tightest point” since August 2023, when BTC/USD last traded around $30,000.
Hyland also acknowledged that Bitcoin has consolidated in a narrow range of 25% since March 13, and stated that he believes that this long consolidation period is now over.
“Now it is starting to squeeze, so the moment is coming. At this point, it will probably come within a month.”
Hyland also observed that the bands were repeating a similar pattern seen in July 2023, which preceded a 20% surge in Bitcoin’s price within the following four months.
“Bitcoin Weekly Bollinger Bands have only tightened this much twice so far: in April 2016 and August 2023. We are now seeing the same thing once again. Afterward, Bitcoin increased by approximately 20% between August and November 2023.”
The analyst also noted that the Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) indicator was at its “third-tightest level ever,” supporting a possible breakout from consolidation.
Data from TradingView reveals that the BBW has dropped to 20%, levels last seen in October 2023 before Bitcoin broke out of a multi-month trading range of $25,000 to $32,000, topping $40,000 at the end of 2023.
The current reading of 20% follows four months of trading between $58,000 and $72,000, barring occasional brief dips to $55,000.
“If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs of around $77,000 by November from its current price.”
It may take “a few more weeks,” Hyland explained, adding that he believes Bitcoin is very close to seeing “an explosive move.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
