Many love to compare historical periods to try to predict the future. We prefer to use automatic fractal identification algorithms to find the most similar periods.
An analysis of the last 365 days of the S&P500 shows a high correlation with the period from September 15, 2005, to July 12, 2007, also known as the financial crisis of 2007-2008. This chart uses the Cross-Correlation algorithm to identify a period in the history of the S&P500 that best matches the last 365 days. Very interesting indeed.
The second chart uses the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) technique, which can warp time to find the pattern most similar to the last 365 days of the S&P500. In this case, it identified the period from 2020 to 2021 as the closest match to the last 365 days of the S&P500.
We can apply this analysis to any asset, whether in traditional markets or cryptocurrencies. In the example below, a truly similar pattern is presented for BTC/USD, where the last 365 days are similar to the year 2019.
These types of statistical analysis are for research reference only and to automate analyses that are usually time-consuming for analysts, without any intention of financial advice.