Why is $BTC Retracing?

In this THREAD, I will explain "Why is $BTC Retracing" with a detailed analysis of both technical and fundamental factors. 🧵👇
1. Technical Analysis- $BTC has dropped from $72,000 in the last 30 days.
- That's a retracement of -20%.
- Such a significant drop can be attributed to various technical indicators signaling a bearish trend.
- Moving averages have shown a downward crossover, indicating potential further declines.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also dipped into the oversold territory, suggesting a bearish momentum.
2. Fundamental Analysis2.1 ETF Outflows and Inflows- $BTC ETFs hold 5% of Bitcoin's TOTAL supply.
- At the start of July, there was an outflow from ETFs.
- This outflow caused a temporary dip in $BTC prices as large quantities were moved out.
- Yesterday, there was an inflow of $143M, making the price bounce again.
- This movement has made investors and potential investors bullish in the current situation.
- The ETF inflows suggest renewed confidence among institutional investors, possibly hinting at a bottoming out of the recent decline.
2.2 MT.GOX- This exchange collapsed in 2014 due to a hacking attack.
- MT.GOX is ready to repay its creditors they have been debting since 2014.
- They will distribute 142,000 $BTC.
- Those $BTC represent 0.7% of Bitcoin's TOTAL SUPPLY.
- The fear of a massive sell-off by these creditors has been looming over the market.
- However, structured repayment plans might mitigate sudden market impacts.
2.3 Miners- $BTC Miners broke records in 2023 and 2024, becoming the TOP sellers.
- The pace of transfers to exchanges intensified in 2024.
- Miners selling their holdings can often indicate they are covering operational costs.
- This directly impacted the excess supply and low demand in the SPOT market.
- Increased miner selling usually leads to increased market volatility and price drops.
2.4 Retail and Beginner Investors- Beginner investors are capitulating and increasing selling pressure.
- Approximately $2.4B worth of $BTC aged between 3-6 months moved on the network during the DUMP.
- This behavior is often observed when retail investors panic sell, exacerbating price declines.
- Experienced investors often see these moments as buying opportunities, adding to market dynamics
2.5 U.S. Interest Rates- The lower the interest rate, the higher-risk investments.
- Policymakers are unwilling to lower rates until inflation moves toward the target rate of 2%.
- High-interest rates make holding cash more attractive compared to risky assets like $BTC.
- As a result, investors may liquidate $BTC holdings to seek safer returns.
2.6 Germany- The German government owns a significant amount of $BTC and has started selling.
- The German government recently transferred 400 $BTC to the exchanges Bitstamp, Coinbase, and Kraken.
- In total, 2,700 $BTC have been moved to exchanges over the past two weeks.
- Government sales can cause market instability, as seen with Germany's recent transactions.
- The rationale behind the government's sale could range from profit-taking to portfolio diversification.
2.7 Global Macroeconomic Factors- Geopolitical tensions and economic policies worldwide impact $BTC prices.
- Recent tensions in various regions have led to increased market volatility.
- Global inflationary pressures also affect investor behavior and asset allocation.
This comprehensive analysis sheds light on the technical and fundamental factors contributing to the recent retracement of $BTC. Understanding these factors can help investors make informed decisions in the volatile cryptocurrency market. 📉💡 
By staying updated with both technical indicators and fundamental developments, investors can better navigate the complexities of the $BTC market and potentially capitalize on opportunities arising from these fluctuations.