The next chart combines the previous models to evaluate Long-Term Holder (LTH) sentiment and behavior, considering their profit-taking incentives and actual spending patterns. We identify four LTH divestment regimes:

- Capitulation 🟥: Spot price is below the LTH cost basis, indicating fear-driven spending.

- Transition 🟧: Price is slightly above the LTH cost basis, with occasional light spending, reflecting typical day-to-day activity.

- Equilibrium 🟨: After a bear market, the market seeks balance with light new demand and gradual divestment by previous cycle holders. Strong LTH spending indicates sudden rallies or corrections.

- Euphoria 🟩: LTH-MVRV above 3.5, aligning with the market reaching the prior cycle ATH. LTHs hold +250% in unrealized profits, leading to high and accelerating spending rates.

This framework shows elevated LTH spending in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, placing the market in the equilibrium regime during this period.

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