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#There is a significant liquidity cluster above the previous weekly high around 78.2k, and in my view, that level is unlikely to be front-run in a straight move. Most market participants are positioning for a breakout above 78k, expecting an immediate continuation toward 86k once it is cleared.
However, I see the move differently. That initial push above resistance may not be a true breakout, but rather a bearish retest setup forming before any real expansion.
This doesn’t mean price won’t revisit the 78–80k region — it likely will. But I don’t expect it to happen immediately. My current expectation is a liquidity sweep of the pwL around 74.3k first, followed by a relief move back into the 79–80k zone.
The reaction around 79k will be critical, as it will determine whether price has enough strength to attempt a higher-timeframe move toward the major swing high liquidity near 82.8k, or if it fails and rolls over #again
I’ve been anticipating a sweep of the 82.8k high for over a week, and I still consider it a likely liquidity target before a larger corrective phase begins. From a broader macro perspective, BTC has historically struggled to sustain three consecutive strong monthly green closes, which increases the probability of a deeper retracement after this expansion phase.
For now, I remain focused on how price behaves once we reclaim or reject the 75–80k region.