Following its surge past $108,000. With
#Bitcoin now experiencing a dip, many investors are questioning whether this marks the end of the ongoing bull run or if the market is simply experiencing a brief pause. Historically, Bitcoin's market cycles have seen similar downturns, only to rebound with renewed upward momentum. To gain better insight into Bitcoin's current phase, analysts are turning to key on-chain metrics that may shed light on its future price direction.
One critical measure under examination is the 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐮𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨 (𝐒𝐎𝐏𝐑), which tracks the profitability of Bitcoin transactions. Currently, the 7-day Simple Moving Average of SOPR remains above 1, signaling that the market is still in a state of profit, though the trend is weakening. A drop below 1 typically signals a shift in market sentiment, often followed by a rebound as selling pressure subsides. This suggests that the market could be nearing a turning point, though it's not clear whether this is a temporary correction or the start of a more extended downturn.
Another significant indicator is the 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 (𝐌𝐏𝐈) , which tracks the behavior of Bitcoin miners and their tendency to sell off their holdings before key market events like halvings or price peaks. Current data shows that miners are not significantly offloading their Bitcoin to exchanges, suggesting that large mining operations remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. This could be interpreted as a positive sign, indicating that major players are not panicking despite the current market volatility, though periodic sell-offs are expected as miners fund their operations.
Additionally, analysts are closely monitoring network transaction fees and funding rates as signs of market activity and sentiment. Lower network fees often signal reduced trading activity, which can indicate a cooling off period in the market. Historically, this has been followed by positive price momentum, especially when other metrics align with this pattern. Meanwhile, the falling funding rates on Bitcoin futures contracts indicate that market sentiment has become more pessimistic, but these rates tend to rise again once negative sentiment peaks, potentially marking the start of another bullish cycle. All these factors point to the possibility of a temporary slowdown, with a strong recovery potentially on the horizon.
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