Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week cha
Haven't checked USDT dominance chart since August. It chosen "bullish scenario" back then - dropped below 2023 close and last month quickly retraced to March close at ~4%.
It might be something like support here, but it's the third time it test it. So with general rule for SR levels it should be weak. Still bounce to ~4.29 or even 4.55% is possible. But if start trading under that SR zone, that will be a bright continuation of bull run.
$BTC look a bit heavy. It dipped into 4H FVG I've marked as nearest target yesterday and at first it gave nice bounce, but as we see, price is turning back to the same level. I think soon it will dip towards Daily 20sma again and this time fully close the gap, as liquidity under yesterday's wick is too attractive and close to ignore.
Reminder that we are still bullish and just waiting for December buy tail to form. We don't know how much time it will take. We don't know how low #BTC will dip before the bounce. All we have is bullish momentum on month timeframe that is pushing BTC up towards 100k, and lower timeframe consolidation, that requires small reset, as obviously Bitcoin price is extremely high to what it was just 3 weeks ago.
#Bitcoin dominance dumped even lower as old high cap coins pumped hard these days. All the crypto money are there now. But now BTC.D is at "support" left from June-July, so it make sense to watch it and alts closer.
Levels of interest for future dips: * 94410 - developing Daily 20sma * 85986 - developing Year VWAP VAH2 * 77200-80260 - CME Futures gap
$PNUT dipped to 1.0455 - right into the center of support zone I've marked. Now looks loaded to pump higher. I'll add a little at ~1.2 when it dip there
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$PNUT finally generated enough history to fit 4H chart. Support formed at 1-1.11 and there is a potential for growth up to 1.79 at least with condition, that price don't go explore new lows. That dip can take price to +/- 0.9 - nearest SR zone.
#Ethereum reached my target zone for breakout at ~3750 ✅ Now time for re-test of developing year VAH. Might happen, might not, but I'm betting on it. Besides it correlates with Day FVG left after breakout, so that makes it double tasty due to liquidity hidden there.
Bearish scenario - if VAH fail to hold price, most probably it will start $ETH journey towards ~2770 zone which was another breakout level never re-tested after the pump.
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#Ethereum price action didn't fully satisfy my forecast, but it stayed within the theory I've described - price got to re-test breakout level which it did. Just bounced a little higher leaving me without orders filled. Hope you had them higher.
How making another re-test of developing Year VWAP VAH - don't trust long breakout candles unless they close above crucial level. Best if $ETH price start trading there. If breakout happens, next will be 3676 (2021 close) and Day gap above it up to ~3750.
If you followed my Saturday review this $BTC drop 94-95k didn't surprise you 👍 Almost sure we will see it at Day 20sma as well (today it is at 94135). And that will be a bullish bounce zone.
December closed bullish, but at the same time long body candle like that leaves a wide range for potential wicks down. So if above bullish bounce zone won't work, anything is possible (down to 75k). Not yet planning my trades based on that deep correction scenario, but keep that in mind not to ger too attached to longs, as they will suffer.
#BTC dominance been dumping for 2 weeks in a row. It was a great period for alts, as BTC was either growing or stable, so everything pumped. As I wrote before BTC.D worth keeping an eye on to catch the dead cat bounce (to take profit from longs) and then catch rejection on that bounce (to load alts again). No confirmation yet, but I fee l the dead cat bounce is coming soon.
Levels of interest for future dips: * 94122 - developing Daily 20sma * 85740 - developing Year VWAP VAH2 * 77200-80260 - CME Futures gap
$BTC re-test ~97800 done ✅ Most probably will come back to 94-95k, and you'll see alarm set for Day 20sma cross as it will be somewhere there at the moment.
Month candle is very bullish. Leaves no doubts December will be bullish, or at least will give us a chance to celebrate 100k per one #Bitcoin 😎 Something we've been waiting for so many years.
Remember that dips in the beginning of each month are very common - they form buy tail. In strong uptrends those dips can be very small, near to zero, or so quick that you will notice them only at lower timeframe. But since developing week candle has a long buy tail, most probably #BTC will revisit part of it's length. So yea, plan stays the same.
Levels of interest for future dips: * 85410 - developing Year VWAP VAH2 * 77200-80260 - CME Futures gap
For ranges we have a golden rule - the price will move in between range borders until it breaks it in one or another direction. In this case I spotted range bottom and had long term target for range top at $17-20. This idea stays valid 👌🏼
Shared $LINK chart with you just before it broke out at price 12.5 🤝😎
Now #ChainLink price is under 2021 close and order block left from March'24. I believe within nearest week we may expect attempt to break above that level. If day candle form sell tail and close below 19.5 again, that will be a rejection, that can lead to bull flag consolidation in between 17.5-19.5 - from there either breakout higher or correction.
P.S. In Telegram group been buying at 10.24-11.60 accumulation zone plus we've added at 13 on re-test of breakout level.
Binance listing pump top was at 7.26, the following week high at 7.068 - these are levels that may cause pullbacks. Pre-Binance volume POC at 7.4. Once #TON find acceptance above last one, it will be free to fly much higher.
$BTC re-test ~97800 done ✅ Most probably will come back to 94-95k, and you'll see alarm set for Day 20sma cross as it will be somewhere there at the moment.
Month candle is very bullish. Leaves no doubts December will be bullish, or at least will give us a chance to celebrate 100k per one #Bitcoin 😎 Something we've been waiting for so many years.
Remember that dips in the beginning of each month are very common - they form buy tail. In strong uptrends those dips can be very small, near to zero, or so quick that you will notice them only at lower timeframe. But since developing week candle has a long buy tail, most probably #BTC will revisit part of it's length. So yea, plan stays the same.
Levels of interest for future dips: * 85410 - developing Year VWAP VAH2 * 77200-80260 - CME Futures gap
So far $BTC look promising and should re-test ~97800. There is a chance it will go higher to 99k and that will open a whole new roadway to bullish December, but if it won't, most probably return back to 94-95k, which leave space for wide range of volatility in the beginning of new month.
Remember that dips in the beginning of each month are very common. From July to November this year every month started with a dip for several days. Sure these were different periods and different trend, but end-of-month profit-taking or rebalancing is usual in trading. Stick to higher timeframes not to be scared.
Levels of interest for future dips: * 85141 - developing Year VWAP VAH2 * 77200-80260 - CME Futures gap
#Stellar pumped so high, no one have expected. Now the question is "will it grow higher?" and "where to buy it to be in profit?" First of all, never buy long green candles. They tempt you, but that's a trap. We should look for SR levels left behind that were skipped on the way up. Then check Fib, so that we don't buy too high or too low. Then remove zones that already were re-tested. So we remove 0.618 at 0.427
Now we have: 1) 0.37 for month range middle and OB from November 2021 2) 0.30 for 0.382 Fib and OB from December'21 3) If none from above pump in volume, then the last one at ~0.22 for OB from March'22 and 0.236 Fib
My vision for $FLOKI correction scenario. Why so low? Because all other zones above were already re-tested.
There is also a more bullish scenario where #Floki follows the bullish consolidation range, and grows back to the top after collecting stops under this week's low.
$PNUT finally generated enough history to fit 4H chart. Support formed at 1-1.11 and there is a potential for growth up to 1.79 at least with condition, that price don't go explore new lows. That dip can take price to +/- 0.9 - nearest SR zone.
Previously mentioned the gap left behind. $PEPE wicked towards there, but bounced earlier - I don't like that wick as it shown no volume. What, degens holding #PEPE never sell? =)
Looks bullish short term, but for spot accumulation I'd wait for the dips under 1725 and down to 1540. That would be a perfect entry.
$APT consolidates within bull flag. If break above 13.4521 (high volume rejection sell tail) should go for that flag top at 14.131 and if that move will also end up closing above, good chances for breakout impulse to reach 15-16 range.
That move has either these two days before month close, or will be delayed for a week.
So far $BTC look promising and should re-test ~97800. There is a chance it will go higher to 99k and that will open a whole new roadway to bullish December, but if it won't, most probably return back to 94-95k, which leave space for wide range of volatility in the beginning of new month.
Remember that dips in the beginning of each month are very common. From July to November this year every month started with a dip for several days. Sure these were different periods and different trend, but end-of-month profit-taking or rebalancing is usual in trading. Stick to higher timeframes not to be scared.
Levels of interest for future dips: * 85141 - developing Year VWAP VAH2 * 77200-80260 - CME Futures gap
This is BTC dominance chart with weekly 20sma being touched for the first time since July. What does it mean?
It means that although chances for alts to continue pumping is pretty huge, there is a scenario where BTC.D first bounce from that strong dynamic SR level, and only after second retracement to it, it falls below.
If that happens, it will be a perfect chance to catch the dips.