$BTC Bitcoin’s Endgame: Quantum Computing Comes For BTC
In recent days there has been a mini media firestorm surrounding Google’s announcement about Willow, its new quantum computer, and a perceived threat to bitcoin. Most of the analysis reveals a remarkably surface-level understanding of how quantum computing will change cryptography, as well as how bitcoin remains resilient to these kinds of technological advancements. We’re going to take a deeper look at quantum computing and the threat it poses to bitcoin. It will get a tiny bit technical, but this is necessary to scratch the surface and understand what these latest developments really mean.
In short, quantum computing will certainly necessitate a change to bitcoin’s protocol within the next few years, similar to the computer upgrades triggered by Y2K. It will likely be a complicated and time-consuming exercise, but not an existential threat to bitcoin itself. And it won’t only be bitcoin that’s affected, since what we are really dealing with is the ability of quantum computers to crack every kind of cryptography we use today across finance, commerce, banking, and more.
It’s hard not to wonder whether some of this alarmism about the end of bitcoin stems from a kind of “sour grapes” dynamic. Critics who have long eschewed bitcoin – whether because they don’t believe it could ever work, resent its challenge to government control, or simply regret not investing when it was cheaper – are seizing on Google’s quantum computing news to predict bitcoin’s downfall. These reactions often say more about the biases of the skeptics than the vulnerabilities of the bitcoin itself.
Not Just a Bitcoin Problem Google’s Willow quantum computer can make calculations with 105 qubits, and its output is believed (as of now) to be relatively accurate. Although 105 qubits represents a large step forward, breaking bitcoin's encryption would require anywhere from 1536 to 2338 qubits.