As Solana solidifies its position alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum as one of crypto’s top tiers, and with BTC and ETH already having or nearing U.S. spot ETFs, SOL’s potential for the next spot ETF naturally comes into focus.

A recent analysis by GSR Markets suggests that such ETFs could catalyze an increase in SOL’s price, potentially reaching up to nine times its current value.

8.9x Price Surge for SOL

To gauge the potential impact on SOL’s price, GSR Markets drew parallels with BTC’s experience following its own ETF approvals. Historically, bitcoin’s price surged from $27,000 to approximately $63,000, driven primarily by ETF-related inflows, which was a 2.3x increase.

Applying similar scenarios to Solana, GSR Markets predicts potential price increases ranging from 1.4x to 8.9x, depending on the scale of ETF inflows relative to Bitcoin’s.

Market dynamics further increase the potential upside for SOL. Unlike BTC, Solana’s active use in staking and decentralized applications suggests a potentially higher impact from ETF-related inflows. This could create what analysts describe as a “free option” for investors, reflecting significant upside potential relative to current market conditions.

While challenges remain, such as market size relative to Bitcoin and regulatory uncertainties, GSR Markets remains optimistic about Solana’s prospects. Should U.S. regulations evolve to accommodate additional spot digital asset ETFs, SOL could see one of the most substantial price appreciations in recent cryptocurrency history.

The Path to a Solana Spot ETF

According to GSR Markets’ research, the path to a spot crypto ETF in the U.S. depends on several regulatory and market conditions. Unlike futures-based ETFs, which currently dominate the market alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, a spot ETF for Solana requires a federally-regulated futures market and demonstrated market correlation over several years.

Recent political shifts, however, hint at a potential change in the regulatory landscape. The backing of the crypto industry by figures like former President Donald Trump has softened opposition from Democrats, leading to bipartisan support for regulatory frameworks that could enable new crypto opportunities, setting the stage for future ETF approvals.

Key determinants for the approval of a spot Solana ETF include measures of decentralization and anticipated demand. Metrics such as the Nakamoto Coefficient, staking requirements, and governance ratings are important in assessing Solana’s readiness. Market indicators, existing AUM, and community activity metrics, which measure potential investor interest and market viability, are also factors.

GSR Markets’ analysis combines these factors into an ETF Possibility Score, which positions Solana favorably alongside Ethereum in the race for the next spot digital asset ETF. Ethereum’s recent ETF filings and anticipated launches places it in the lead, with Solana closely following due to positive scores across decentralization and demand metrics.

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This Friday, around 107,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire, with a notional value of $6.6 billion.

Moreover, it is an end-of-month expiry event, which is much larger than usual end-of-week expiries so there may be a little market volatility.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Today’s huge tranche of BTC derivatives has a put/call ratio of 0.5, meaning that twice as many long (call) contracts are expiring as shorts (puts). The max pain point, or price at which most losses will be made, is $57,000, which is around $4,000 lower than current spot prices.

Bulls remain in charge of Bitcoin options markets with more than $340 million in open interest at higher strike prices of $70K, $75K, and $80K. Moreover, total OI ramps up to $590 million at $90K and $770 million at the $100K strike price, according to Deribit.

Crypto derivatives tooling provider Greeks Live commented that June had been a tough month for the crypto market, “with a more pessimistic atmosphere as BTC and ETH prices at one point approached the max pain point, which investors thought was impossible to reach.”

June 28 Options Data 107K BTC options are expiring with a Put Call Ratio of 0.5, a Maxpain point of $57,000 and a notional value of $6.6 billion. 1.04M ETH options are expiring with a Put Call Ratio of 0.59, Maxpain point of $3,100 and notional value of $3.6 billion. Today is… pic.twitter.com/sYVyb3HJnC

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) June 28, 2024

It added that, despite the volatility in the market, the implied volatility, a measure of future volatility from expiring contracts, did not show a significant rise, with BTC below 50% IV for all major terms.

In addition to the big batch of Bitcoin options, around a million Ethereum options are expiring today. These have a put/call ratio of 0.59, a max pain point of $3,100, and a notional value of $3.6 billion. This pushed the total crypto options expiration notional value to over $10 billion.

Ethereum ETF news will be clearer early next month, observed Greeks Live, which added that the implied volatility “will be under strong downward pressure for a few days after today’s delivery.”

Crypto Market Impact

Total market capitalization has recovered a little from its dip earlier this week to hover around the $2.4 trillion mark. However, sentiment remains bearish, and markets have been downtrending throughout June.

Bitcoin recovered to top $62,000 on June 28, but it retreated to $61,500 at the time of writing. The asset appears to be consolidating at this level following its dip below $60K on June 24.

Ethereum prices had also recovered from their five-week low of $3,260 on Monday. The asset had returned to $3,430 at the time of writing.

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Logan Paul has filed a defamation lawsuit against YouTuber Stephen Findeisen, known as Coffeezilla, over a series of videos released in 2022 about the former’s failed CryptoZoo NFT project.

The suit alleges that Findeisen “maliciously and repeatedly” made false statements accusing Paul of organizing a scam through CryptoZoo.

“Defamatory Falsehoods”

The court documents state, “Paul brings this defamation suit to hold Findeisen accountable for his actions and to hold him liable for the immense harm that he has caused to Paul’s reputation through the intentional and reckless dissemination of defamatory falsehoods.”

In late 2022, Coffeezilla released a three-part YouTube series on CryptoZoo, branding it as “Logan Paul’s biggest scam.” The videos alleged that Paul had defrauded his fans by collecting money from NFT holders without delivering the promised project. The series quickly gained traction, getting tens of millions of views and becoming some of Findeisen’s most popular content.

However, Paul argues that these videos painted a misleading narrative. The lawsuit claims Coffeezilla omitted crucial information demonstrating Paul’s genuine commitment to CryptoZoo’s success. Findeisen knew that Paul did not profit from the project and had many internal messages showing that he was determined for CryptoZoo to be executed perfectly before its public launch.

“Findeisen knew full well that Paul had never set out to scam anybody, but to the contrary had always intended to build a legitimate blockchain-based game,” the filing states.

In the lawsuit, Paul also blames the project’s failure on Eduardo “Eddie” Ibanez, whom he describes as “a charlatan” who falsified his credentials, and Jake Greenbaum, an adviser who was “more interested in trying to personally profit than in helping to create a legitimate project.”

Logan Paul Seeks Over $75,000 in Damages

Logan Paul is seeking damages exceeding $75,000, plus interest, lawyer fees, and additional relief as determined by the court.

Paul had previously announced a $1.5 million recovery plan for CryptoZoo and considered suing Findeisen in late 2022. However, he decided against it to focus on making amends with the NFT holders. Despite this, Findeisen continued to release videos throughout 2023 and 2024, reiterating claims that CryptoZoo was a scam organized by Paul.

According to the suit, he was subsequently “left disappointed” when his efforts “failed to materialize,” and he spent $1 million to buy back the NFTs between January and March, even though he had not “earned any money from the project whatsoever.”

The CryptoZoo project, which launched in 2021, was intended to be a game where players could buy NFT “eggs” using the ZOO token. The ZOO token has since plummeted, now effectively worthless with a market capitalization of zero and minimal trading volume.

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Bitcoin’s price actions drove the asset to over $62,000 yesterday, but it failed to maintain its run and has retraced to under that level as of now.

Several altcoins have outperformed substantially the largest digital asset, including DOT, AVAX, and SOL.

BTC Stopped at $62K

It hasn’t been a good week for the primary cryptocurrency in terms of price action. The asset entered Monday at over $64,000 after a quiet weekend, which it spent at that level as well.

However, the bears didn’t wait long and initiated a massive leg down that drove bitcoin south hard. In a matter of hours, BTC slumped by several grand and dumped to $58,400 for the first time in almost two months.

The bulls finally stepped up at this point and didn’t allow any further declines despite the warnings. BTC bounced off and quickly reclaimed the coveted $60,000 line and jumped to over $62,000 on Wednesday.

It failed there at first, retraced slightly, but went on the offensive once again yesterday. Yet, to no avail, as the latest rejection pushed it back down to $61,500, where it stands now.

Its market cap has managed to rise above $1.2 trillion but the dominance over the alts struggles below 50.5%.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 28.06.2024. Source: TradingView DOT, AVAX, SOL on the Rise

Perhaps the most notable news in the industry yesterday came from VanEck as the asset manager filed to launch the first Solana ETF in the States. As a result, SOL’s price shot up immediately and tapped $150 for the first time in a few weeks. Despite retracing slightly, SOL is still 7% up on the day.

More gains come from the likes of Avalanche (9%) and Polkadot (8%). AVAX has risen above $28, while DOT is now well over $6.

Most other larger-cap alts are in the green as well, albeit in a more modest fashion. FET and TRX are among the few in the red.

The total crypto market cap has regained about $40 billion overnight and is above $2.4 trillion on CG now.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto

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Bitcoin sustained a more than 6% decline over the past week. The back-to-back corrections temporarily pushed the asset below $60,000.

Although it has rebounded since then, its recovery appears to have stalled around $61,500, causing concern among investors about further losses. This is especially true as the US government transferred 3,940 BTC to Coinbase Prime after receiving approval to liquidate.

However, QCP Capital believes that bitcoin will be able to defend the $60,000 support.

Bitcoin’s $60K Defense

On June 26th, the US government transferred 3,940 BTC to Coinbase Prime, the institutional trading arm of Coinbase. These tokens were initially seized from a convicted drug trafficker, Basmeet Singh, earlier this year.

This transfer has sparked concerns that the government might sell a portion of its BTC reserves, potentially leading to downward pressure on the asset’s price, which has already been struggling.

According to the latest analysis shared by QCP Capital, bitcoin has been effectively maintaining the $60,000 support level despite severe bearish pressures. It will be able to defend this level for two main reasons.

Firstly, a wallet identified as the German government has slowed the pace of transfers to exchanges, with only 250 BTC being sent yesterday. This could potentially suggest an end to their current selling regime.

Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $52.4 million over the past two days after seven consecutive days of outflows. Taking these factors into account, QCP Capital, in its latest analysis, interpreted the market to be ripe for bitcoin accumulation.

Such an interpretation could also signify that the asset is now preparing from a leg up.

Bitcoin Preparing For Leg Up?

CryptoQuant’s latest research also hinted at signs that the leading asset’s local bottom has formed. The on-chain intelligence platform highlighted that the OI decreased by $3 billion in the futures market as a result of long liquidations. The funding rates for perpetual contracts too neared zero, which was indicative of a “balanced market” with a “healthier and less overly optimistic price structure.”

Moreover, this week’s BTC plunge below $60,000 attracted several buyers. In fact, holders controlling 0.1% of the total bitcoin supply added 7,130 BTC to their stash in just one day. The newly purchased BTC is worth around $436 million. Interestingly, this particular accumulation also marked the highest net inflows since late May, which could suggest that investors are confident about the price going up from here on.

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On June 27, Binance announced that it is implementing stricter measures to address account misuse, including enhanced monitoring of all account activities.

The company stated that it has recently detected instances where certain account features on the platform are being “misused or exploited to gain unfair advantages, such as a better fee rate and higher API limits over other users.”

Binance said that it may suspend or terminate accounts found to be involved in misuse.

Account Termination for Violators

The exchange offers various account types that have features with the potential to be misused by bad actors seeking better fee rates. These include sub-accounts, managed sub-accounts, and fund manager accounts.

The firm has frowned upon providing unauthorized access to other users’ accounts and has vowed to take measures such as suspending or terminating violating some. Binance will also increase its monitoring of all user accounts.

“To ensure our account features are not being misused, we have further enhanced the monitoring of all account usage and related activities.”

Binance also established a reporting channel for users to report account misuse incidents with a reward system for verified cases of reported misuse.

The Binance API has three different types of limits: hard, machine learning, and web application firewall limits, which appear to have been abused by those seeking to exploit the system.

The exchange is the world’s largest with more than $10 billion in daily volume, according to CoinGecko.

Binance UAE License Approved

In related news, Binance announced that it received a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) for its local exchange in Dubai, Binance FZE, on June 26.

The firm added that there will be an account transition for all UAE residents from the Binance Global exchange to the newly-regulated Binance FZE exchange.

The exchange’s native token, BNB, was trading flat on the day at $573 at the time of writing. BNB has fared much better than its altcoin brethren in recent months, hitting an all-time high of $717 on June 6, while other altcoins have tanked hard.

However, the asset has declined 20% from that peak over the past three weeks as the market correction deepens.

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CleanSpark (CLSK) – one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining firms – announced on Thursday that it had acquired one of its smaller competitors, GRIID Infrastructure, in an all-stock deal.

The $155 million deal immediately brings 20 megawatts (MW) of additional power to CleanSpark to bolster its mining operations. Another 400 MW of power is expected to be added in Tennessee over the next two years.

CleanSpark Acquired GRIID For $155 Million

The merger agreement required CleanSpark to assume all debts and other obligations from GRIID. It also required CleanSpark to provide GRIID with a $5 million working capital loan, and to pay down a bridge loan of $50.9 million to satisfy other obligations from the smaller miner.

“This acquisition would give us a clear and steady path over the next three years to accomplish in Tennessee what we proudly achieved in Georgia over the past three years,” said Zach Bradford, CleanSpark’s CEO, in a press release.

“That achievement was to build out over 400 MW of infrastructure backed by valuable, long-term power contracts.”

Following the announcement, shares for GRIID tanked more than 50% while CLSK shares popped by 4%, implying that traders viewed the merger agreement as a fire sale.

CleanSpark’s shares closed on Thursday at $16.05 apiece, implying a market cap of $3.6 billion for the firm, according to Google Finance. The company has been one of the best-performing mining stocks year to date (+47%), defying the trajectory of most industry players whose stock sank heavily prior to the Bitcoin halving.

Bitcoin Mining Acquisitions

CleanSpark isn’t the only mining firm to announce an acquisition in recent months. Since late May, Riot Platforms (RIOT) has been attempting a hostile takeover of Bitfarms (BITF), offering to buy out the firm at $2.30 per share.

Bitfarms initially rejected a buyout offer a month prior, with Riot suggesting that the company’s directors were not “acting in the best interests of all shareholders.”

As of Thursday, BITF closed at $2.59 per share. RIOT is down 11% since last month at $9.12 a share.

Core Scientific (CORZ) – the former largest mining firm that recently emerged from bankruptcy – is now eyeing a potential $1 billion buyout offer from cloud computing firm CoreWeave. Since the offer, CORZ shares are up 92% this month.

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The layer-2 ecosystem remains robust with protocols and EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) scaling platforms growing rapidly and becoming ubiquitous, contrary to some bearish claims, said Ethereum community member Ryan Berckmans in a post on X on June 26.

His comments came in response to a post from Movement Labs founder Rushi Manche, who said, “EVM L2s will go to zero. they mostly all suck compared to SOL.”

Berckmans retorted, stating that the L2 ecosystem is still “growing like crazy,” citing ecosystem analytics platforms such as L2beat before adding, “Coinbase made an EVM L2. So did Worldcoin. So did Immutable X.”

Layer-2 Growth Impressive

Additionally, layer-2s are seen as an integral part of Ethereum, not just a scaling solution, he said before arguing that L2s on the second-largest blockchain offer better value than alternative layer-1 networks due to Ethereum’s “credible neutrality” as a base layer.

Moreover, Ethereum’s ecosystem is larger and more diverse than competitors in terms of liquidity, mature protocols, and total value locked, countering Manche’s arguments claiming Solana is superior.

L2s and EVM are killing it ​ For the most part, people betting against L2s and EVM are going to lose hard. ​ I thought the EVM L2 bear post below was particularly wrong and wanted to reply to it in detail. ​ TL;DR ignore the FUD, L2s and EVM are growing to global ubiquity.…

— Ryan Berckmans ryanb.eth (@ryanberckmans) June 26, 2024

Berckmans predicted that L2s will significantly surpass Solana’s transaction throughput in the coming years.

“Regardless of any one L2, the L2 ecosystem’s overall total tps will soon far, far surpass Solana’s tps. In five years, by like 100x.”

He also argued that Ethereum’s later-2 ecosystem is seen as more attractive for corporations and governments due to its security and decentralization properties. He described a “settlement network effect” for Ethereum, where the growing ecosystem of layer-2 protocols increases the benefits and reduces the costs of settling on Ethereum.

Berckmans concluded that Manche’s comments make it sound like EVM L2s are dead and L2s aren’t that great a deal, adding, “But neither of those things is true.”

“What we’re actually seeing is that Ethereum’s L2 model is killing it, and EVM is leading the pack by far.”

L2 Ecosystem Outlook

The total value locked across all L2 protocols is currently $42.86 billion, according to L2beat. Moreover. This TVL has remained steady since March despite crypto markets declining by 18% over the same period. Since the same time last year, L2 TVL has increased by around 280%.

Arbitrum One leads the L2 pack with a TVL of $17 billion and a market share of almost 40%. Coinbase Base is in the second spot with $7.3 billion TVL and 17% share and OP Mainnet is third with $6.4 billion and 15%.

L2beat lists 58 protocols, which is a testament to ecosystem growth compared to the handful that were listed a year or so ago.

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According to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, a Bitcoin wallet that had been inactive for 14 years has reemerged.

The entity deposited 50 BTC worth around $3.05M to Binance.

Early Bitcoin Miner Wallet Moves 50 BTC

The dormant wallet, belonging to an early Bitcoin miner, sprang to life on Thursday, moving its entire balance of 50 BTC worth roughly $3.05 million to the cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

A miner wallet woke up after being dormant for 14 years and deposited 50 $BTC($3.05M) to #Binance 7 hours ago.

The miner earned 50 $BTC from mining on July 14, 2010.

Address: 1PDTDwpgRPdQaCcp3Th6zaMASgcCcm3Jcm pic.twitter.com/toKmBfbUne

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 27, 2024

Lookonchain noted that the wallet address, which had been inactive since July 14, 2010, received its 50 BTC as a mining reward on the same date and has held the cryptocurrencies since then.

Back in 2010, BTC was trading below the $1 mark, and it only surpassed this threshold in February 2011. By June of that year, the price peaked at $30. Currently, the cryptocurrency stands close to $61,000

BTC mined in 2010 are among the earliest and most coveted in the cryptocurrency world. The sudden activation of such coins can signal various market sentiments, including renewed interest from early adopters.

It’s generally accepted that when owners of old wallets become active, it might indicate they plan to sell their holdings. Sometimes, holders move BTC to different addresses for further trading.

Dormant Satoshi Era Bitcoin Wallets Resurface

This phenomenon of dormant wallets awakening isn’t entirely new. Several wallets from the Satoshi era—the period between 2009 and 2011 when Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator was active—have seen similar activity.

In March 2022, another wallet containing 489 BTC, valued at $20 million at the time, was reactivated after being dormant for 11.4 years. This wallet achieved a return of 42,000,000%.

On-chain analytics firms identified two significant whale wallets in July and August 2023 that had been inactive for over a decade. These whales moved thousands of BTC from their addresses, with one transferring 1,037 BTC worth $37.8 million to a new address and the other moving 1,005 BTC worth $29.7 million at the time.

More recently, in April 2024, another wallet that had been dormant for 14 years moved 50 BTC worth over $3.28 million at the time to Coinbase. Additionally, a major Bitcoin holder who had hibernated for a decade made a move in April, transferring 246 BTC from an address holding 1,701 BTC. This whale had received 4,272 BTC in 2013 when BTC was priced at an average of $29.39.

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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might approve the latest tweaks about the spot Ethereum ETFs by July 4, as discussions between asset managers and regulators reach their final stages.

While speaking to several industry insiders, Reuters observed that eight asset managers, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale Investments, are closing in on the final stages. Many of these firms launched spot Bitcoin ETFs in January after a decade-long struggle with regulators, and Grayscale is again aiming to convert an existing trust into an ETF.

Ethereum ETFs Poised For July

Executives from two of the firms involved reportedly told Reuters that the process of tweaking the documents has progressed significantly, and only “minor” issues remain to be resolved, which must get a go-ahead before the funds hit the floor.

The approval is expected to be “probably not more than a week or two away,” according to another lawyer.

The latest timeline aligns with Bloomberg’s ETF analyst Eric Balchunas’ revelation earlier this month in which he suggested that the spot Ethereum ETF could be approved before the July 4th US holiday, potentially by July 2nd.

Despite the widespread speculation about the launch date, the SEC and its Chair Gary Gensler have been extremely tight-lipped. In this week’s Bloomberg interview, Gensler expressed optimism about approving these investment vehicles but refrained from offering any specific timeline. He hinted that these funds might go live during the summer.

Last month, the regulatory watchdog approved the 19b-4 forms. Currently, the SEC and the issuers are working on S-1 filings, which must be approved before these products can start trading.

Ethereum ETFs Could Attract $15B in 18 Months

According to Bitwise’s prediction, spot Ethereum ETFs are expected to attract over $15 billion in net inflows within their first 18 months in the US market.

Bitwise’s CIO Matt Hougan based his estimate on Bitcoin ETF data and Ethereum’s market size relative to BTC. Currently, the market cap of the world’s largest digital asset sits at around $1.26 trillion, while Ethereum’s is $432 billion, resulting in a 3:1 ratio.

Almost $56 billion of Bitcoin’s total market cap is invested in the spot Bitcoin ETFs of the US, a figure Hougan anticipates will grow to $100 billion by the end of 2025.

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The largest United States cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, has filed lawsuits against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for failing to comply with information requests in closed crypto cases.

According to filings at the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, Coinbase seeks to compel the SEC and FDIC to comply with the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) to respond to information requests from industry participants.

Coinbase Sues SEC and FDIC

Coinbase argues that the SEC has taken a new position, claiming sweeping authority over the growing crypto sector. While the SEC’s claims have no basis in securities laws, the agency has failed to explain properly and, instead, waged an enforcement war against crypto firms.

The exchange said the regulator’s joint effort with other financial watchdogs, like the FDIC, to de-bank crypto firms is aimed at crippling the digital asset industry.

Coinbase and professional services research firm History Associates have requested that the SEC prove its authority over the crypto space by providing records concerning three investigations into such firms and entrepreneurs. One of the investigations is focused on Ethereum’s native asset, Ether, which the SEC said was not a security in 2018.

Last week, the agency closed its investigation into Ethereum 2.0, the proof-of-stake network, suggesting that Ether is still not a security. Although the other investigations had been closed for years, the SEC withheld all records based on the three cases. Coinbase claims the refusals violated the regulator’s FOIA obligations.

“The SEC’s new, opaque, and shifting view of the securities laws deprives regulated parties of the fair notice demanded by due process, leaving them to guess whether the SEC might view their activities as securities transactions and decide to subject them to investigation, prosecution, and backward-looking penalties,” Coinbase insisted.

SEC’s Ongoing Suit Against Coinbase

Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, further revealed that the FDIC stonewalled requests for letters telling financial institutions to pause crypto-related activities indefinitely. Interestingly, the FDIC’s Office of Inspector General has criticized such actions in the past, claiming that they would limit financial innovation and growth in the crypto space.

“This is no way to regulate. And this is no way to operate a transparent government. Today, we demand better from our financial regulators. We appreciate the Court’s attention to these important issues and look forward to sharing updates in the future,” Grewal stated.

Meanwhile, the SEC has an ongoing lawsuit against Coinbase, arguing that the firm operates an unregistered securities exchange.

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After a bearish correction phase, the price has now reached a crucial support zone, defined by the 100-day moving average and the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci levels.

Given the strong demand at this juncture, a mid-term bullish rebound is looking likely.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

A detailed examination of the daily chart reveals that Ethereum has entered a significant support zone following a corrective pullback. This zone spans the price range between the 0.5 ($3421) and 0.618 ($3289) Fibonacci levels, coinciding with the critical support of the 100-day moving average ($3387).

This area is poised with potential demand, where market participants might be inclined to open long positions.

Considering these factors, an increase in demand is expected, leading to a mid-term bullish reversal targeting the $4K resistance. However, if the price drops below this support, the next significant defense line for buyers will be the 200-day moving average.

Source: TradingView The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart clearly shows Ethereum’s recent corrective move, with the price forming a bullish continuation flag pattern.

If the price breaks out from the upper boundary of this pattern, it signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Currently, the cryptocurrency is near the lower boundary of this flag, aligning with the critical support of around $3.3K.

If buyers re-enter the market and demand rises, the price is expected to break above the flag’s upper boundary at $3.6K, leading to a strong uptrend towards the $4K resistance.

Conversely, if sellers push the price below the $3.3K support, a drop toward the substantial $2.9K support will likely follow. In the mid-term, the price is expected to remain within the $3.3K-$3.6K range until a breakout occurs.

Source: TradingView Sentiment Analysis

By Shayan

While Ethereum currently rests in a critical support region with significant potential demand, analyzing the future market sentiment is essential for forecasting its next moves.

The following chart highlights the Ethereum funding rate metric, which indicates whether buyers or sellers are executing orders more aggressively. Positive funding rates suggest bullish sentiment, whereas negative rates imply bearish sentiment.

The funding rate metric recently showed a notable increase after a period of slight declines, which coincided with a corrective phase in Ethereum’s price.

This uptick suggests that demand is present near the crucial support level of $3.3K, potentially halting further downward pressure and initiating a bullish reversal. If the funding rate metric continues its upward trend, it indicates that the futures market sentiment is turning bullish, making a mid-term bullish reversal more likely.

Source: CryptoQuant

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Cryptocurrency-based exchange-traded funds continue to be on the main stage in the US, with the latest filing from VanEck taking into account the fifth-largest digital asset – Solana.

Shortly after the news broke, the native token’s price shot up by 7% to $150.

Matthew Sigel, the company’s Head of Digital Assets Research, highlighted the development on X. He noted that the firm believes Solana is very similar to Ethereum as it operates as an “open-source blockchain software designed to handle various applications, including payments, trading, gaming, and social interactions.”

He added that, unlike Ethereum, Solana works as a “single global state machine” that lacks sharding or layer-2 networks.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January this year after a decade-long battle. However, the US regulators are certain that the underlying asset (BTC) is a commodity.

Just last month, the securities watchdog reluctantly greenlighted spot Ethereum ETFs, but it continues to delay their launch since ETH’s stance is still uncertain, according to the SEC.

As such, SOL’s stature is still quite questionable. However, Sigel outlined several reasons why VanEck believes it is a commodity, like ether and bitcoin.

“We believe the native token, SOL, functions similarly to other digital commodities such as #bitcoin and #ETH. It is utilized to pay for transaction fees and computational services on the blockchain. Like ether on the Ethereum network, SOL can be traded on digital asset platforms or used in peer-to-peer transactions.”

SOL’s price reacted immediately to the news, soaring by 7% in minutes. The asset had stumbled to $135 amid the market-wide correction but jumped to $150 after the VanEck announcement.

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The U.S. government has transferred $240 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) to a Coinbase Prime address.

According to Arkham Intelligence, the 3,940 BTC sent to Coinbase were originally forfeited from Silk Road vendor and narcotics dealer Banmeet Singh during his January trial.

Seizures and Legal Actions

In late 2021, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) seized over 50,000 BTC, valued at $3.4 billion, from the illicit Silk Road marketplace. Approximately five months later, officials sold 9,861 BTC for over $215 million. By July 2023, an additional 9,000+ BTC were sold, leaving the government’s wallet with around 30,000 BTC.

It was later confirmed in court that the U.S. government had seized a total of 69,370 BTC and other cryptocurrencies linked to the Silk Road dark web marketplace. The most recent Bitcoin movement by the authorities occurred in April when they transferred BTC valued at approximately $2 billion.

Update: US Government Sends $240M BTC to Coinbase Prime

The US Government just moved 3,940 BTC ($240M) to Coinbase Prime.

This BTC was originally seized from narcotics trafficker Banmeet Singh, and forfeited at trial in January 2024.

Transaction: https://t.co/hZ1CwqWCmF pic.twitter.com/9t6k8Wdizq

— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) June 26, 2024

The U.S. government holds large quantities of Bitcoin acquired through seizures and asset forfeitures. According to Lookonchain, the country possesses 213,546 BTC, valued at approximately $13.07 billion.

Banmeet Singh, the individual linked to the latest transfer, was arrested in 2019 by British authorities in London on drug distribution charges. Extradited to the United States in 2023, he was accused of running a narcotics smuggling network from 2012 to 2017 with distributors across multiple states, including Maryland, New York, and Florida.

As part of his judgment, Singh was forced to surrender over 8,100 BTC, valued at around $150 million at the time, marking the largest cryptocurrency seizure by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA).

Market Impact and Regulatory Scrutiny

The recent transfer had an immediate impact on the cryptocurrency market. Following the Wednesday transaction, the total cryptocurrency market experienced a modest decline, with BTC prices dropping below $60,800. At the writing time, the asset is trading at around $61,000.

Coinbase Prime, the platform used for this latest transaction, has become the preferred vehicle for government liquidations. However, Coinbase itself has faced regulatory scrutiny. Under the leadership of Gary Gensler, the SEC charged the exchange with operating an unregistered securities platform and acting as an unlicensed broker-dealer.

Coinbase has denied these allegations and is contesting them in court, arguing that the SEC has failed to provide clear regulations and registration processes for crypto businesses.

Silk Road, a dark web marketplace created by Ross Ulbricht in 2011, remains a significant part of the history of Bitcoin and darknet markets. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested Ulbricht in 2013, leading to the shutdown of Silk Road.

The post Is The US Government Selling $240 Million in Bitcoin (BTC) Related to Silk Road? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs appear to be slowly recovering as the collective inflows reached $21.52 million on June 26th, continuing with the positive momentum that began on Tuesday.

However, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has not reported any new investments for the past four days. This isn’t its highest streak, though, as in April, the fund recorded five straight days of no inflows.

It is important to understand that BlackRock’s activity has been on a downtrend, with only two minor inflows since June 14, both under $2 million.

Zero flows in an ETF occur when the supply and demand balance out, thereby not promoting the creation or redemption of shares, as previously explained by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

This lack of inflows, however, does not necessarily mean that there’s no trading activity but rather that the net flow isn’t significant enough to require share adjustments.

Other spot Bitcoin ETFs such as BITB by Bitwise, BTCO by Invesco and Galaxy Digital, and BRRR by Valkyrie offerings also experienced a similar fate of zero flows on the same day.

Contrastingly, Fidelity’s FBTC saw the largest net inflows of the day, amounting to $19 million as per SoSoValue data. The fund saw a continuous 7-day streak of outflows from June 13 to 24. This trend has since reversed, with FBTC leading the pack as the spot Bitcoin ETFs broke away from the negative streak on June 26.

Grayscale’s GBTC, which hadn’t seen positive flows since June 5, attracted just over $4 million yesterday.

Since their introduction in January, these investment vehicles have attracted $14.44 billion in net inflows.

The post BlackRock’s IBIT Stays Stagnant Despite Bitcoin ETFs Bounce Back With $21.5M in Inflows appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Bitcoin’s underwhelming price actions continue as the asset failed to maintain above $61,000 and has headed toward the coveted $60,000 support level.

The altcoins are in a similar state, with DOGE, ADA, SHIB, LINK, PEPE, NEAR, and others dropping by more than 3% in the past day alone.

BTC to Lose $60K?

The weekend went in a familiar fashion as BTC’s price had stalled at just over $64,000. The lack of any action on the ETF front resulted in little to no volatility on Saturday and Sunday.

The landscape changed for the worse on Monday when the bears stepped up on the gas pedal. In a matter of hours, they pushed the cryptocurrency south hard, and BTC slumped to $58,400 by Tuesday morning. This became its lowest price point in almost two months.

The bulls managed to intervene at this point and drove bitcoin to over $60,000 almost immediately. It even spiked to $62,400 during the day but failed to continue upward or even maintain its current position.

Since then. bitcoin has retraced by nearly two grand and now sits well below $61,000. Its market cap has dropped below $1.2 trillion once again, and its dominance over the alts has taken a hit to 50.6% on CG.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 27.06.2024. Source: TradingView DOT Goes Away From $6

The larger-cap alts have also bled out in the past day. Binance Coin, Ripple, Solana, Tron, and Ethereum are among the least hit alts, having all dropped by around 1%.

However, DOGE, ADA, LINK, SHIB, NEAR, and PEPE have declined by more than 3% within the same timeframe. FET, on the other hand, has plummeted by 11% to under $1.55.

KAS is the only notable gainer from the larger-cap alts, having surged by 8% to $0.175.

The total crypto market cap has shed over $30 billion overnight and is down to $2.365 trillion.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto

The post BTC Price Slips Toward $60K Again, DOT Falls Further Away From $6 (Market Watch) appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The ongoing case between Ripple Labs and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is in its trial phase. And although this is technically the point of the lawsuit where it is supposed to get resolved, there’s no telling when it might actually end.

That said, here’s what’s been going on lately as of June 27th.

Current Standing in the Ripple v. SEC Lawsuit

One of the most important developments in the past few weeks was that the Commission actually lowered its demand for a fine from a whopping $2 billion to $102.6 million.

The SEC stated at the time:

“Ripple avoids comparing the Terraform settlement’s penalty to the gross profit of the violative conduct. That ratio ($420 million/$3.587 billion) is significantly higher: 11.7%. Applying it to the $876.3 million in gross profits, the SEC here asks the court to disgorge, which results in a much larger figure, a $102.6 million penalty, than the $10 million ceiling Ripple insists on.”

Ripple’s legal team demanded a lower penalty to the tune of no more than $10 million.

Meanwhile, the SEC’s Chief of the Crypto Asset and Cyber Unit – David Hirsh – resigned.

Ripple is also facing legal challenges on another front – in California, where its CEO Brad Garlinghouse is a defendant in a civil lawsuit. However, recently, there have been positive developments, with the company’s chief lawyer noting:

The CA judge dismissed all allegations suggesting that Ripple violated federal securities law. The NY ruling that XRP is not a security stands undisturbed.

Bashing Gary Gensler

Both Stuart Alderoty (Ripple’s legal chief) and Brad Garlinghouse recently took definitively negative stands against the SEC’s chairman Gary Gensler.

The latter said the other day, talking about crypto:

This is a field where the leading lights from a couple of years ago are either in jail, about to go to jail, or awaiting extradition.

To this, Garlinghouse responded:

Absolute nonsense coming from Gary Gensler today. 

And this slender about “all crypto execs going to jail” from the man who completely missed FTX (and actually cozied up to SBF) and wasn’t even invited to the DOJ announcement about Binance.

If he was really “working for the American people” as he says, he would have been fired a long time ago.

Gensler will cause Biden to lose the election.

Meanwhile, Alderoty also had something to say on Gensler’s recent comments.

Note to @GaryGensler: The courts aren’t “adjusting”…they are finding that you are breaking the law by exceeding your statutory authority. https://t.co/rne7JRygm2

— Stuart Alderoty (@s_alderoty) June 26, 2024

The post Ripple v. SEC Lawsuit Update June 27th appeared first on CryptoPotato.

The past couple of days were action-packed, with the cryptocurrency market experiencing considerable volatility. Fortunately, this time, it was leaning toward the upside as most of the coins attempted to recover from the declines suffered at the beginning of the week.

In this recap, we will examine what happened with Ripple, Shiba Inu, and more.

Ripple (XRP) Price Speculations

As CryptoPotato reported earlier, XRP saw a tremendous increase in its trading volume earlier in the week as the market was going through considerable turbulence.

At the time of this writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at a 5.7% loss for the week at around $0.47.

Now, as most of you may know, Ripple Labs is involved in a massive case against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The regulator is seeking a fine upwards of $100 million for the company’s alleged failure to register its sales of XRP as securities. Ripple, on the other hand, argues that XRP doesn’t meet the criteria of being a security.

We decided to poke ChatGPT, asking what the price of XRP would be if it weren’t for that lawsuit.

The AI-powered language model outlined that multiple factors are to be considered, such as market sentiment, adoption and use cases, and more. Ultimately, though, it concluded that the price would likely have been higher.

It’s also worth noting that amid this ongoing uncertainty, XRP’s market depth remained steady.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Developments

Elsewhere, Shiba Inu was also impacted by the market turbulence. Unlike XRP, it charted a more considerable decline, trading at an 8.5% loss for the past seven days.

A few days ago, SHIB’s trading volume also spiraled and soared by more than 100%.

Data from Shibburn reveals that the cryptocurrency’s burn rate has actually declined by more than 53% over the past 24 hours, leading to around 9 million SHIB tokens being destroyed.

Source: Shibburn Other Important Headlines

In what seems to be one of the most important news of the week, WikiLeaks’ co-founder Julian Assange is finally back in Australia a free man.

Interestingly enough, he needed $500,000 to cover his jet fare. His wife turned to the online community for help, and a mystery donor sent exactly $500K in BTC to his address.

Speculations are that it was Jack Dorsey – Twitter’s co-founder, who tweeted “Safe passage through” at the exact same time the donation was made.

The post Ripple (XRP) Price Speculations, Shiba Inu (SHIB) Developments, and More: Crypto Bits Recap June 27th appeared first on CryptoPotato.

According to data shared by Lookonchain, the German government has transferred an additional 750 BTC, valued at approximately $46.35 million. Around $15.41 million or 250 BTC of this amount was sent to crypto exchanges Bitstamp and Kraken.

Despite these transfers, the entity still maintains a significant Bitcoin reserve, currently holding 45,609 BTC, which has an estimated value of $2.81 billion.

Large Transfers and Test Transactions

Data revealed that the German government also transferred 0.001 BTC to Flow Traders, which may be a test transaction. This suggests that the authorities may be exploring additional avenues for selling the Bitcoin holdings through this trading firm.

The recent movements are part of a larger trend, with over 2,000 BTC sold from the address identified to be of the government, which coincided with a period of market turmoil.

The development comes just a day after Arkham Intelligence flagged a wallet linked to the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), which moved $24 million worth of Bitcoin to Kraken and Coinbase exchanges. An additional $30 million in BTC was transferred to a new untagged wallet. These movements are in addition to transfers made on June 19 and 20, totaling $130 million and $65 million, respectively.

The origin of this Bitcoin trove can be traced back to the seizure by the BKA from the operators of Movie2k.to, a now-defunct film piracy website that was active in 2013. The seized amount, nearly 50,000 BTC, was worth over $2 billion at the time of confiscation. The BKA received these funds in mid-January following a “voluntary transfer” from a suspect involved in the case.

Bitcoin Retreats Again

Recent fluctuations in the market seemed to be influenced by the German government’s Bitcoin transfers, as well as other factors that briefly caused a dip in the underlying asset’s price, dragging it below $60,000 earlier this week. The latest action of Bitcoin divestment has once again added pressure to the market.

The top digital asset had soared to $62,400 after the market-wide crash, but the overall pressure resulted in another decline. As of now, BTC struggles to remain above $61,000.

The post Here’s How Much BTC the German Govt Has Transferred to Exchanges So Far appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Ethereum’s status as an ultrasound money system becomes increasingly questionable as the days go by, especially as its supply keeps increasing at a high rate.

Since mid-April 2024, about a month after the Ethereum network underwent the Dencun upgrade, more than 112,000 ether (ETH) has been added to the market at the fastest daily rate after the Merge.

The Effects of Dencun

Over the years, Ethereum has witnessed several developments that have led to the network are we know it today The Merge in September 2022 marked its transition from a proof-of-work consensus mechanism network to that of proof-of-stake.

In mid-March, Ethereum underwent another upgrade that reduced the transaction fees of its layer-2 networks by roughly 4x and enhanced the blockchain’s scalability by expanding its capacity. Dencun introduced nine Ethereum improvement proposals (EIPs), including EIP-4844, which implemented proto-danksharding, a mechanism that allowed for data blobs.

With blobs, layer-2 solutions like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon became able to submit transaction data to Ethereum for collective settlement within a dedicated blobspace without additional expenses.

It is worth noting that Ethereum implemented some upgrades to ensure it remained deflationary before Dencun came. One such was the London upgrade that took place in August 2021. London introduced a mechanism that removed ETH from circulation with every transaction by burning a portion of the network’s gas fees. The Merge further cemented this approach to deflation and lowered ETH’s inflation rate by 90%.

ETH Now Inflationary

Since Dencun, Ethereum’s transaction fees have been low, meaning less ETH has been burned. On-chain analysts believe Ethereum is no longer deflationary, as the new ETH supply has turned positive. The amount of fees burned on Ethereum is no longer positively correlated with higher network activity; fewer fees are burned regardless of how many users are transacting on the network.

Nevertheless, the total supply of ETH since the Merge has plunged significantly, with an overall reduction of 345,000 ETH. Around 1.36 billion ETH has been issued, but more than that has been burned.

With Ethereum’s inflationary rate increasing post-Dencun, the purchasing power of ETH is reducing, which may have a negative impact on investors.

Meanwhile, ETH was worth $3,374 at the time of writing, down 4.8% in the past week in correlation with the drawdown in the crypto market.

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