Tonight’s CPI data, the decisions of the FOMC meeting, and the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates are undoubtedly the focal points of market attention. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slightly retreated to around 4.40%, and the price of BTC continues to show a high correlation with it, rebounding from the $66,000 support level and regaining half of yesterday’s losses to just below $68,000.
Source: Investing
Source: TradingView
In terms of options, the front-end implied volatility saw a significant increase as the U.S. economic event approaches, and the longer-term IV was also slightly raised. Regarding trading, amidst the price rebound, a low vol skew, and a sharp rise in IV, yesterday’s flow did not continue to buy puts. Instead, a large volume of bullish strategies were established, notably the 13 JUN 68000 vs 69500 Call Spread with 1287 BTC per leg, and the 28 JUN 65000 vs 75000 Risky with 450 BTC per leg. Moreover, the president of The ETF Store anticipates that the ETH Spot ETF S-1 filing will be approved before the end of June, which has also significantly increased the ratio of call options bought for ETH. The 25-day Risk Reversal (dRR) overall rose above zero, nearing the highest level in the past three months. Additionally, despite the general rise in overall IV, the ETH 28 JUN 24 IV saw a slight decline, primarily driven by several large block Short Straddle strategies.
Source: Deribit （As of 12 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8）
Source: SignalPlus, Front-end implied volatility surged ahead of the release of major U.S. economic data.
Source: SignalPlus, The overall ETH Vol Skew has risen sharply.
Data Source: Deribit, Overall distribution of ETH trading
Data Source: Deribit, Overall distribution of BTC trading
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
