If China attacks Taiwan, the war will cost 10% of global GDP
The Agency considers two possible scenarios. The first is a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by China, which would entail the entry of the United States into the conflict. The second is a blockade of Taiwan, which would cut it off from trade with the rest of the world.
The greatest economic damage would come from a shortage of semiconductors. Taiwan is the largest producer of chips that are used in phones and laptops, in automobiles and many other industries., About 5.6 percent of total value added worldwide (nearly six trillion dollars) comes from sectors that use chips, and the total market capitalization of the 20 largest customers of Taiwan's TSMC is about $7.4 trillion.
If war breaks out, experts estimate that Taiwan's economy would be decimated, China's GDP could shrink by 16.7%, US GDP by 6.7%, and global GDP would fall by 10.2%. South Korea, Japan and other East Asian countries would suffer the most.
