In this article, we will explore the mysterious Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. We will find out how it affects both investors and the market in general. Additionally, we will analyze the implications for the price of BTC and what we can expect at the next halving scheduled for 2024.
To understand the Bitcoin halving, you must first understand the basics of Bitcoin mining. In short, new Bitcoin comes into the world as a reward for miners whenever they mine a Bitcoin block.
When Satoshi Nakamoto set up the rules for the Bitcoin protocol, he stated two important things, among others:
First, the supply of $BTC is finite and limited to 21 million.
Second, the number of Bitcoin generated per block i.e., the reward, is set to decrease by 50% every 210,000 blocks.
How long does it take for Bitcoin to be halved?
Since 6 blocks are mined on average within an hour (~ every 10 minutes each) and halving happens once every 210,000 blocks, there will be a halving event every 4 years (give or take).
This means that the mining reward will be reduced by 50% from before the halving. For example, if each miner receives 6.25 bitcoins for solving a block today, they will receive only 3.125 bitcoins after the next halving event.
Of course, the fact that 21 million is the maximum amount of Bitcoin that will ever be generated doesn’t mean that there are actually 21 million bitcoins set to be in circulation. We need to consider that there are many lost bitcoins that will never be recovered (it’s assumed that 30% of Bitcoin’s supply, or 6 million BTC, is permanently lost).
The data took the average price increase from the 2016 and 2020 halvings to calculate the price of Bitcoin.
One year after the halving has seen eye-watering price action in the past. In 2012, after the first halving, the price rose from $12 to $1,003 over a year, an 8,000% increase. The research didn’t include 2012 in the averages, as at the current price and market cap it would be almost impossible to see increases of this nature.
In 2016, the price after a year was $2,502, an increase of 284%. In 2020, the price of a Bitcoin was $56,764, which was a 562% increase from the pre-halving price of $8,572.
This is an average of 423% a year after a halving event. This would give Bitcoin a price of $361,152. It is extremely unlikely that Bitcoin will reach this figure within 12 months, however, many analysts have figures of $150,000 to $250,000 in 2025.
What year will the last Bitcoin be mined?
Following the halving math, the final number of bitcoins will be 20999999.9769, rounded to 21 million. This is expected in the year 2140.
Will Bitcoin mining ever end?
No. As long as Bitcoin exists, mining will be needed. Once all bitcoins are mined, the miners will continue to be compensated through transaction fees.
How many bitcoins are mined per day?
On average, 144 blocks are mined each day (24 hours a day * 60 minutes per hour / 10 minutes per block), divided by the current rate of 6.25, which means that 900 bitcoins are mined per day on average. This will again be cut in half after the next halving in April 2024.
Does Bitcoin halving increase price?
Going off the last three Bitcoin halvings, the price increased minimally at the time of the halving. However, there was always slow but substantial growth in the months/years after. Regarding the halving’s impact on price, one thing is for sure: the price of Bitcoin has never plummeted after a halving event.
The recent emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – regulated financial products available from major banks, offering a simpler way to invest in bitcoin – has been long-awaited and was expected to push up prices. Some analysts now estimate that around 704,400 coins are already in the hands of ETFs.
There are now two schools of thought on the effect of the halving: some believe it will provide another boost to bitcoin and push prices ever higher, while others think the impact is already priced-in. While the regulatory approval of bitcoin ETFs was never a certainty, the halving is, so its effect may already be reflected in the price. But it is almost certain that the halving won’t cause the price to double.
Now, in the current week it has managed to exceed its ATH up to $73,000, the potential that bitcoin has is totally crazy, with all this explained you already have a much clearer idea of the great event that is coming in a few days. So are you going to buy some BTC for a couple of years from now when you retire or go on vacation?
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