Toncoin ($TON ), the native cryptocurrency of The Open Network (TON), has experienced a prolonged correction following its remarkable 300% rally in March 2024. This surge was largely fueled by the success of Telegram-based mini-apps, such as Notcoin (NOT). However, since that explosive rally, TON has been trapped in a downtrend, with recent market volatility exacerbating the bearish pressure. In the past week alone, the token has dropped over 6%, extending its correction to 25% over the last 60 days.
On-Chain Analysis
Recent data from crypto analyst Ali Martinez reveals that over 240,000 TON tokens, valued at approximately $1.16 million, have been moved to exchanges in the past week. While this transfer volume isn't exceptionally large, it still highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment surrounding the token. According to on-chain data from Santiment, these movements reflect the pressure that continues to weigh on TON's price.
Potential for a Rebound
An analysis of TON's daily chart shows that the token has been consolidating within a descending triangle pattern since its explosive 324% rally in March 2024. The recent rejection at the descending resistance level of $7.13, combined with a breakdown below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), has driven the price towards a crucial support zone between $4.50 and $4.84. This level has historically acted as a strong rebound zone, suggesting that a bounce is possible.
As of the latest data, TON is trading at $4.87, demonstrating resilience at this critical support level. Should the token manage to maintain this support and break above the 200-day SMA, the next target would be the descending trendline resistance. A successful breakout from this pattern could signal the end of the current bearish trend and set the stage for a potential recovery.
However, if Toncoin fails to hold the current support, further downside may be in store, with the next key support level lying between $3.90 and $4.00.
Conclusion
Toncoin (TON) is currently testing a key support level, showing notable resilience. Technical indicators suggest that if the support level holds, a rebound could be imminent. However, the broader market context remains important, as the altcoin rally has yet to materialize, largely due to Bitcoin's continued dominance. Should Bitcoin’s dominance decline, a recovery in altcoins, including TON, is
expected to follow.
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