as of November 2022 when Bitcoin hit a bear market low of $15,487, it has since skyrocketed by over 573%, with a 130% increase in price so far this year. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, with ETFs and spot accumulation leading the way. Historical data shows that we are currently in the mid-cycle, and the market may reach its peak around the third or fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024. Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle suggest that we are still in a bull market phase, but far from reaching its peak. Pi cycle top and 4-year moving average model predict a potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000. From a historical perspective, the diminishing returns are easing the explosive growth of BTC that we saw in the previous cycles.

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