The Last Month of the Year, Last Half of the Last Month
This week has been relatively stagnant with the price generally moving up and down. We've entered the most critical week of the month for the market. With the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate decisions, this week is particularly crucial. While a 25 basis point reduction is expected with 99% probability, inflationary statements might cause market pullbacks.
Bitcoin
Crypto and BTC started the week with a decline, then moved towards its weekly opening, and we saw a pump before closing. It could be a classic move for the price to rise until the FED announcement and then fall afterward with the statements. Generally, the market tends to move in one direction until the news and then reverse afterward. Therefore, it's important to be cautious. It seems more logical to make purchases with gradual pullbacks until Trump becomes president and then let it run its course.
As I mentioned last week, opening the year too high might bring a sharp decline at the beginning of the new year. Or we might expect contrary movements like a sharp upward movement in the new year if it falls too much. This week's implied volatility range is 88.5k - 120.5k.
Ethereum
ETH, which opened November at 2500 and December at 3700, is testing the 4000 resistance. After a sharp sell-off at the beginning of the week, it's slowly climbing up but still hasn't met expectations due to its weakness against BTC. I think the price will move more sharply with sustainability above 4100, but I believe it should proceed with confirmation. One shouldn't move too confidently before 4-hour and daily closings.
This week's Put/Call Ratio is 0.51, and the max pain price appears to be 3700. Implied volatility can be expected similar to last week at 3200-4700.
ETHBTC
Although weakness continues, as I mentioned last week, it looks positive as long as it stays above 0.0348. I think the main movement will progress when it stays above the purple box of 0.042.
#December2024 #BTCNewATH #ETHHits4KAgain #BitcoinKeyZone #FedRateDecisions