Seasoned trader Peter Brandt is leaning bearish on Bitcoin (BTC) as the benchmark cryptocurrency hovers 17% below its all-time. New signals suggest BTC could be set for a steep downward move.
Is A 75% BTC Fall Imminent?
What happened to “Uptober” for BTC? Despite being 11 days into October — a month famed by crypto market participants for skyrocketing prices in the past — the price of the benchmark asset is floundering.
Early this month, Bitcoin appeared to be fast approaching the $64,000 mark after hovering above $60,000 in recent weeks. However, BTC quickly retraced below $63,000 per coin.
The asset is now well below its March all-time high of $73,737, CoinGecko data shows. And chart expert Peter Brandt has warned of a potential 75% plunge. Brandt cites a historical price trend for his extremely bearish outlook.
In his post on X, he noted that Bitcoin would typically experience such an intense pullback after failing to register a new record high within 30 weeks after posting its previous price peak.
Hey BitcoinersAre you familiar with the concept of "market analogs?"Here is something to think aboutIt has been 30 weeks since $BTC made an ATHWhenever has not made a decisive new ATH within this time length a 75%+ decline has occurred pic.twitter.com/CUyK4C2W93
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 11, 2024
Brandt mentioned the old maxim that says, “Markets that don’t go up usually can’t go up.” He also emphasized that his analysis is just a market observation, not an opinion. “I am always amused by people who confuse a market observation with a market opinion. Drivers who cannot turn their heads in both directions always end up in an accident,” the legendary trader added.
When asked whether he is a Bitcoiner or a chart trader, Brandt revealed that Bitcoin is the “largest single, tradeable asset” in his net worth.
Bitcoin Is Two Weeks Away From Recording Its Longest-Ever Sideways Post-Halving
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is on track to register its longest sideways phase after a halving event. In particular, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju observed on Friday that the alpha crypto has only 14 days to enter a parabolic rally if history repeats itself.
“285 days have passed since the bitcoin halving,” Young Ju wrote on X. “If there is no bull market in 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways post-halving in history.”
285 days have passed in 2024. If there is no #Bitcoin bull market within the next 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways in a halving year in history. pic.twitter.com/JWHkgHC27C
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 11, 2024
Bitcoin halvings happen quadrennially and reduce the block rewards to miners by 50%. Following previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin has historically set new lifetime highs. However, the crypto has mostly languished in the $59,000-$65,000 range since the April halving, closing in on a 300-day sideways action record from 2016.
