A new HBO documentary is poised to reveal the identity of Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, according to a report in Politico.
If true, it would mark the end of the greatest mystery in financial history.
Satoshi would rank among the world’s wealthiest people, with an estimated $67 billion in Bitcoin.
As anticipation builds for the show, which is set to be telecast on October 8, a Polymarket betting pool has started that lets users bet on who the documentary will name as Satoshi.
Four frontrunners lead the speculation:
Len Sassaman
A majority of 44% of Polymarket bettors are putting their money on HBO naming Len Sassaman as Satoshi.
Sassaman was an early digital privacy advocate and an experienced cryptographer. He was an active figure in the cypherpunk movement who promoted privacy, decentralisation, and resistance to government surveillance.
Speculation about Sassaman resurfaced in 2021 following a study by a contributor named Evan Leung Hatch.
The study highlighted Sassaman’s cryptographic expertise, his use of British English, and his connections with Hal Finney — another notable Satoshi candidate. It also pointed to Sassaman’s work on privacy technologies that closely resemble Bitcoin’s architecture.
Despite the parallels, Leung’s study was unable to provide conclusive evidence.
Sassaman died in 2011.
Hal Finney
The next most likely candidate, at 20% on Polymarket, is Hal Finney, a renowned cryptographer and early Bitcoin adopter.
He was the recipient of the first-ever Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto and helped test early versions of Bitcoin’s software.
Finney’s own development of “Reusable Proof-of-Work” inspired Bitcoin’s consensus method.
Finney denied he was Satoshi in 2014. Still, Finney’s close involvement with Bitcoin’s creation, along with his declining health —he was diagnosed with ALS in 2009 — has led some to believe that he was behind the pseudonym.
Finney died in 2014.
Adam Back
Blockstream CEO Adam Back also figures in Bitcoin’s origins.
He invented Hashcash, a Proof of Work system that laid the foundation for Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism.
Satoshi Nakamoto referenced Hashcash in the Bitcoin white paper, and Back was one of the first people Satoshi contacted during Bitcoin’s development.
Although Back has consistently denied being Nakamoto, many in the crypto community argue that his technical skills and early influence on Bitcoin’s structure make him a plausible candidate.
Back has also testified against Craig Wright, who falsely claimed to be Satoshi.
Bettors give Back an 8% chance on Polymarket.
Nick Szabo
Nick Szabo, a computer scientist and cryptographer, developed Bit Gold, a precursor to Bitcoin.
His work on timestamped databases and his extensive writing on decentralised currency parallel many of Bitcoin’s principles.
Szabo’s name frequently comes up due to these similarities, and analyses of his writing style have found correlations with Satoshi’s.
Szabo has repeatedly denied being Nakamoto, most notably after a New York Times article cited several cryptographers who claimed he could be the mysterious Bitcoin creator.
Despite this, his involvement with early cryptography projects keeps him in the conversation.
On Polymarket, he holds a 5% chance.
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.
