Bitcoin (BTC) dropped by $6,000 between Sept. 29 and Oct. 3, reaching a two-week low of $59,860 and based off the intra-day price action, it looks like the decline is set to continue.
BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: TradingView
The latest sell-off, triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has seen the price lose key support levels: the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $61,318 and the 100-day EMA at $61,438.
“#Bitcoin still appears to be heading lower,” declared Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC in an Oct. 3 post on X.
The analyst was referring to Bitcoin’s price action since Sept. 29, when it turned away from highs of $66,071, undoing some of the gains made from “FOMO buying” when BTC recovered from the Sept. 6 local low of $52,546.
AlphaBTC said that, given what is happening geopolitically and the weakness starting to appear in US economic data, Bitcoin’s price is likely to drop further.
“In my opinion, it’s better to keep some powered dry for a deeper flush.”
BTC/USD chart. Source: AlphaBTC
Fellow analyst Crypto Rover shared similar sentiments, saying that Bitcoin traders would be in a bad situation “if Bitcoin loses this support” provided by the $60,000 level.
In an earlier post, AlphaBTC shared a chart presenting two scenarios for where BTC price could go in the short term. The first is a bullish case where Bitcoin would confirm a double-bottom structure “around the 61.8 Fib level” at $61,370. This would see BTC embark on a V-shaped recovery toward $70,000.
The second is a bearish case involving a breakdown of the support at $60,000, swiftly moving the price down to $58,000.
“It’s probably best not to leave limit orders on exchanges while there is the potential for a black swan-like further escalation in the Middle East.”
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: AlphaBTC
With the current price action, AlphaBTC sets the short-term target for Bitcoin between $57,500 and $61,300.
Other analysts believe that Bitcoin’s price could see deeper corrections, setting targets between $58,000 and $52,000.
Independent trader Emperor Keo Xplus set the bearish target at $52,000 saying that $63,000 was an important level for the bulls.
Source: Emperor Keo
Pseudonymous analyst Crypto Patel shared similar sentiments, saying that if support at $60,000 is lost, the next logical move for the bears would be $55,000.
“Now, if $60k support holds, we could see an upward move toward $63,000. If not, be prepared for the next stop around $55,000.”
The 200-day EMA provides the last line of defense for Bitcoin price
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin’s price action has formed a series of higher lows on the daily chart (see below) to stay above the ascending trendline. Bitcoin price is required to hold above this level to avoid sinking deeper.
The appearance of a doji candlestick on the daily chart implied the importance of the $60,000 level for both buyers and sellers.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, if bulls lose the ongoing battle, they may retreat toward the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which appears to be the last line of defense for Bitcoin at $59,890.
This suggests that high demand-side liquidity from this demand zone could push BTC’s price past the resistance provided by the 100-day and 50-day EMAs, ending the current sell-off.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
