Bitcoin's Potential Path to $100K: Demand Growth and Seasonality Key Factors

Analysts from CryptoQuant have outlined the potential for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, emphasizing the importance of increasing demand and positive seasonal trends. Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in the fourth quarter of the year, especially during halving cycles, as seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

In a report published on October 2, CryptoQuant highlighted Bitcoin’s similar performance in 2024 compared to previous halving years. During these years, Bitcoin posted gains of 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively, by year-end. This suggests that Bitcoin could still have significant upside potential, but demand needs to pick up for this to happen.

The firm’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows Bitcoin fluctuating between bullish and bearish phases, a departure from 2020 when Bitcoin entered Q4 in a clear bull market. As of now, demand for Bitcoin has been stagnant since July, showing little growth, but analysts see room for improvement in Q4. Institutional demand, especially through U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, will be a critical factor in driving prices higher.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw net inflows of $1.8 billion between September 13 and 30, indicate a growing interest from institutional investors. If this trend continues, CryptoQuant believes it could propel Bitcoin’s price to $85,000–$100,000 by the end of December. The report also notes that the approval of new investment options in the U.S. has boosted market sentiment.

In addition to market demand, geopolitical tensions and economic factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, will play a role in shaping Bitcoin’s price action.

While optimism is growing, CryptoQuant emphasizes the need for continued demand growth for Bitcoin to reach new heights in Q4. As always, investors should exercise caution, given the inherent risks in the volatile crypto market.

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