Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump currently hold equal odds of 49% to win the U.S. presidency on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, with over $541 million in total bets placed. This tie follows Harris's selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, surprising bettors who expected Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Since July 21, when speculation about President Biden's withdrawal from the race intensified, Harris's odds have increased from 30%, while Trump's stood at 64%. Biden's odds had dropped to 7% during this period.
Polymarket is regarded as a significant indicator of market sentiment, reacting quickly to news events such as the recent assassination attempt on Trump. However, the platform's user base skews heavily towards crypto enthusiasts, which may influence its predictive accuracy.
Polymarket experienced record trading volume of $387 million, more than triple the previous month, and has already recorded $130 million in trades in early August. The recent addition of statistician Nate Silver as an advisor is expected to enhance the platform's analytical capabilities. The tie in odds signifies a volatile and shifting political landscape as the 2024 election approaches.
