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The global financial markets are capitulating, with the fears of a US recession and an all-out war in the Middle East forcing investors to de-risk.
Japan’s Nikkei posted its worst 2-day losses in history, while Taiwan’s stock market suffered its worst day in 57 years today on Monday. US stocks are also not faring any better, with the Magnificent Seven erasing over $1 trillion in market cap.
Unsurprisingly, the crypto market is crashing as well, with its total market capitalization down by over $300 billion in 24 hours.
The Bitcoin price traded as low as $49,800, before seeing a marginal bounce back. However, experts believe it is unlikely that the bottom is in for BTC just yet.
Why Is Crypto Crashing Today?
The crypto market has seen the worst of both worlds over the past few months. Crypto prices showed no correlation to US stocks when the latter was hitting new all-time highs every other week in May and June.
And yet, the crypto market has crashed today, largely due to the ongoing capitulation in US and global equities.
Investors are now de-risking amidst concerns of an upcoming recession in the US, sparked by the weak job growth in July and the uptick in the unemployment rate. The unemployment data even triggered the Sahm rule, one of the key indicators of an upcoming recession.
The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also added to the selling pressure on equities and crypto. The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has informed G7 members that Iran could attack Israel in the next 24 to 48 hours.
BREAKING:
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken told G7 members that Iran could launch an attack against Israel in the next 24 to 48 hours. pic.twitter.com/39uqf6ob9z
— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) August 5, 2024
The economic crisis in Japan is also making matters worse. The Bank of Japan increased its interest rates in July and could decide on more hikes in the coming months. This has caused a massive unwinding of Yen carry-trade positions, resulting in sell-offs in stocks and crypto.
Finally, the crypto market is bearing the brunt of the political uncertainty in the US. Pro-crypto Donald Trump’s lead has now been erased by Vice President Kamala Harris. In fact, Harris is now leading the race, according to Nate Silver’s election model.
Where Will The Bitcoin Price Bottom?
The Bitcoin price hit $49,800 today on Monday after declining by nearly 18%. However, experts believe that it can certainly go low.
Popular crypto trader Digital Nomad Woman (@taqwaayub) reveals that BTC typically creates a local bottom at its 40-week moving average after major corrections. If this phenomenon repeats, it could mean that the Bitcoin price will bottom at $44k.
$BTC is going to 47K!
Any bounce is a shorting opportunity.
I backtested $BTC from 2012 which shows that after corrections, it has always bounced from the 40-week average.
The 10-week and 40-week averages are commonly used to gauge the primary trend.
We lost the 10-week… pic.twitter.com/gfOdGNEHED
— Digital Nomad Woman (@taqwaayub) July 11, 2024
Some experts are also drawing comparisons to BTC’s price action in 2021. Bitcoin reached a local top of $60,000 in April of 2020, only to correct nearly 45% to hit a local bottom at $31k. It then skyrocketed to reach an all-time high of $69,000.
If BTC were to repeat its price action, this could mean a local bottom at around $41k in the coming days. However, it would also indicate that the bull market is not done.
My degen, not quantitative, not AI, not scientific prediction model sees this analogy of bitcoin / crypto market future pic.twitter.com/Pq6iMHeo28
— Andrei Grachev (@ag_dwf) August 5, 2024
Which Crypto to Buy Now
Smart money investors know better than to try and catch the falling knife. Bitcoin and major altcoins have given no indication of a bottom yet and entering long positions or buying the dip comes with high risks.
Instead, some deep-pocketed traders researching which cryptos to buy now are opting to invest in presale tokens, considering they are not impacted by short-term price action.
For instance, a new meme coin Pepe Unchained is in high demand, having already raised over $7.3 million in its ICO. Popular crypto trader Cilinix Crypto – who has over 66k YouTube subscribers – has publicly revealed that he has purchased PEPU during its presale.
The meme coin caught the attention of investors with a rare and bold move of launching its own Layer-2 chain. The Pepe Unchained developer team believes that it can offer low trading costs and high staking rewards, which could drive up the retail investment into the meme coin.
Experts appear to be agreeing with this vision, with some even suggesting that early PEPU buyers can earn up to 50x returns.
Similarly, experts are bullish on the multi-chain meme coin Base Dawgz, hinting at the possibility of up to 100x returns.
DAWGZ is certainly off to a strong start in its presale, having already raised over $2.8 million in a few short weeks. Its multi-chain status, innovative concepts such as share-to-earn and high staking rewards appear to have struck a chord with the investors.
*Cryptonomist did not write the article or test the platform.
