This bull is no longer an ETF bull! 🔥
ETFs had 2 functions. He lost one, the other is still going on.
1️⃣ ETF bull
We didn't say bull from the beginning, we said ETF bull.
Because ETFs were listed on January 11. Then Bitcoin broke all resistances with high ETF inflows. The marked areas are where the resistances were broken.
How did this happen without the Fed printing money?
2️⃣ Current liquidity
Did the Fed print money?
Of course not. Interest rates are still 5.25% and the Fed is still burning money every month (QT). What happened is very simple: Some of the current liquidity in the financial sector shifted here.
While shifting here, the money did not leave the financial sector (BlackRock, Fidelity). In other words, it did not move to the blockchain ecosystem. That's exactly why this rise had a very limited effect on altcoins.
So what is a bull?
3️⃣ Bull = new investor
Bull means new investors coming.
Active address on-chain data gives us information on this subject. We clearly see that no new investors are coming.
In fact, everyone you talk to in the sector is very unhappy. Because there are no new customers.
Despite this, ETFs perform their 2nd function very well.
3️⃣ Support during declines
Whenever Bitcoin falls, there are high inflows to ETFs.
We have seen this many times in every 60K test.
We also saw it under 60K when Germany was selling.
This is no longer a comment. It is real.
So?
✅ Conclusion: when is bullish?
It has always been about money, cheap money from the beginning.
When fundamental conditions improve (low interest rates + QE), ETFs will support upwards again. New users will come then. The real bull will start then.
So when?
For this, we follow economic data:
- Inflation
- Employment
- Elections
- M2
The picture is turning positive (for today).
But please let's not forget this: When the Fed lowers interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00% and continues to burn money with QT every month, it is not printing money.
If I missed something, please write in the comments 👇
