Biden's Odds on Polymarket Little Changed After ABC TV Interview

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U.S. President Joe Biden may have seemed more coherent on Friday night's televised interview compared to the debate a week ago, but his odds of reelection did not substantially change, according to traders on crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket.

For the contract asking who will win the presidency in November, "yes" shares for Biden were trading at 11 cents shortly after the ABC News interview with George Stephanopoulos aired, a penny lower than right before the broadcast. Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades at par with the dollar) if the prediction comes true, and zilch if it does not. Therefore, an 11-cent price means the market believes the incumbent has an 11% chance of winning.

A month ago, the shares were trading at 36 cents. They tanked after Biden's disastrous performance in the debate against former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump.

The presidential winner contract is Polymarket's largest, with $229 million of bets placed.

For a separate contract concerning who will win the Democratic nomination, Biden's odds climbed just one percentage point after the broadcast to 42%. This contract has $89 million staked.

A third contract asks if Biden will drop out of the race, with $12 million riding on the outcome. Odds there inched up three points, to 65%.

Four-year-old Polymarket's volume has surged