#USUALAnalysis $USUAL #USUALx 1. Circulating Supply vs. Total Supply:
• Circulating Supply: 493.6M
• Total Supply: 516.9M
• The circulating supply is approximately 95.48% of the total supply, indicating that a significant portion of the tokens is already in the market.
2. Staked USUALx:
• Total Staked: 143,689,481.295292707 USUALx
• Percentage of Total Supply:
Approximately 27.79% of the total supply is staked.
3. APY Reduction to 100%:
• The current APY is 276%, and APY reduction depends on factors such as:
• Increase in staking participation (more tokens staked, lower APY).
• Protocol adjustments to align rewards with tokenomics.
Assuming a linear decrease and no protocol change, the time frame for APY to drop from 276% to 100% would depend on:
• The rate of new staking inflows.
• The reduction mechanism defined in the protocol.
If staking participation significantly increases due to whale involvement or retail participation, APY could drop below 100% within weeks or a month, depending on how rapidly staking scales.
Potential Events Before January 7th:
1. Whale Involvement:
Whales may strategically buy large amounts of USUAL to benefit from high APY and price appreciation. This could result in:
• A price surge due to increased demand.
• Locking up of large portions of the supply in staking pools, creating scarcity in circulating tokens.
2. Retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out):
Retail investors may react to the price increase and jump in, driving prices even higher. This benefits whales, who can:
• Take profits by selling tokens at higher prices.
• Reinvest when prices stabilize or drop.
3. Increased Scarcity:
As more USUAL is staked and prices rise, supply in circulation decreases, causing further upward pressure on price. Holders staking for high APY may hesitate to sell, reducing market liquidity further.
Strategy for Retail Investors:
• Monitor Whale Activity: Keep an eye on on-chain data to detect significant whale movements or large transactions.
• Staking Rewards: Consider staking if you’re confident in the protocol’s sustainability and expect long-term value.
• Avoid FOMO: Enter the market based on a calculated strategy rather than chasing after sudden price spikes.
Summary:
The lead-up to January 7th could see increased whale activity and retail FOMO, resulting in price spikes. The APY decline to 100% is likely in the near term as staking grows. Retail investors must act cautiously, as whales may use volatility to their advantage. Staking remains a strong option for those who aim for steady returns rather than speculative gains.