Bitcoin’s October gains: Trump pump or proxy?
Bitcoin’s October rally seems correlated with Trump’s rising election odds on the world’s leading decentralized predictions market, Polymarket.
On Oct. 16, Bitcoin price reached a two-and-a-half-month high above $68,200 as Trump’s odds of a victory rose to a record high of 60.2%, while Harris’ slid to 39.8%.
On Oct. 28, Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 for the first time since June 10 as Trump’s odds of winning the election surpassed 66.3%.
BTC/USD chart and Polymarket odds, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph and Polymarket
However, this correlation does not mean that Trump’s rising odds are driving Bitcoin’s price. The Giver noted that there is growing conviction around a previously “underpriced” Trump victory:
“Consensus is viewing ‘the Trump trade’ incorrectly; the effect is not causation where increasing Trump odds linearly creates a vacuum for BTC to perform, but rather the basket of assets that have gone up this month reflect a Trump win having being underpriced entering the month.”
#btcupdates2024 BTC/USD chart and Polymarket odds, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph and Polymarket