LIVEDontBLiquidity
@TheWolfThatWins
Inside each of us we have 2 wolves fighting, the bad, negative, toxic wolf and the positive, happy and peaceful wolf, so which wolf wins? The one you feed!
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PINNED
Messed up my prolife
Changed the wrong thing.
Wanted to make my @ my x handle(i dont post there at all, dont intend to) was incase they silence me, im sometimes very outspoken about the BS, scams going on here and crypto in general.
This is the only place i post and have contact with people who follow me so wanted a safegaurd.
support is trying to see if i can change it back.( can only be changed once in 30 days)
Not a massive issue, i just have a solid community, image attached to my name so it means a lot to me.
Hopefully i can change it back soon.
Its still me though.
Peace.
Changed the wrong thing.
Wanted to make my @ my x handle(i dont post there at all, dont intend to) was incase they silence me, im sometimes very outspoken about the BS, scams going on here and crypto in general.
This is the only place i post and have contact with people who follow me so wanted a safegaurd.
support is trying to see if i can change it back.( can only be changed once in 30 days)
Not a massive issue, i just have a solid community, image attached to my name so it means a lot to me.
Hopefully i can change it back soon.
Its still me though.
Peace.
PINNED
Is crypto facing the risk of a US recession?
This will be a long read, it took me days of research, it is a pessimistic view but all based on facts.
If you are not interested in understanding broader market risks then dont read further.
If you have a lot of your money invested in Crypto its worth reading.
I am not doing this to spread FUD or sway your decision, my posts are a labour of love, i earn nothing from this.
I own Crypto, I am 100% pro Bitcoin and many other projects, i recently purchased more long term spot.
If you chose the red pill, read on.
Firstly, If we go back to the end of 2023 it was widely predicted that the FED would cut interest rates 5-6 times this year, this would be needed to stave off recession, fast forward 6 months and we have had no cuts, we also have no clear direction, this does not show signs the FED is in control of the US economy.
Powell and the FED are focusing on inflation and unemployment and are using this as validation that their higher for longer stance is working.
Inflation is a lagging indicator, its like looking backwards to see what is ahead of you, also the labour market can collapse at a rapid rate once it starts to deteriorate, it is not always a gradual decline.
Here are some things to consider that show the FED might be about to cause a recession,
-The Sahm rule, The Sahm rule is an indicator which tracks the moving average of unemployment, the rule has applied to every recession since 1948, currently the Sahm indicator is flashing a risk warning, if (only if) unemployment keeps rising at the pace it has in the last 3 months it will trigger the Sahm rule recession warning in the coming months. Unemployment and job loss dynamics feed on themselves, if people lose their jobs, they stop spending money, leading to more jobs losses.
-Spending on the US national debt interest(not debt just the interest) is now the second largest item in the US budget, it has surpassed the National defense and Medicare budget, it is expected to reach $870 Billion in 2024 (3.1% of GDP)
-Hundreds of US banks at risk of failure or falling below their minimum capital requirements.
- Credit card default rates at the highest level in 12 years.
- Delinquency transition rates increased on all debts types in the last quarter.
-Yield Curve inversion is now the longest on record, for decades the Yield curve inversion has been a leading indicator used to signal a recession.
-Pending home sales fell by 7.7% in April, they fell in all regions, this is the slowest pace since 2020. Pending home sales is a forward looking indicator(unlike existing home sales) as the contract is signed several weeks before the house is counted as sold. Pending home sales have a far reaching ripple effect on the economy, when people buy homes they spend on renovations, a morgage is sold, brokers are paid and so on, it is a leading sign of economic health.
-Consumer spending and retail sales declining (Consumers make up 70% of the US GDP)
-Consumers appetite for nonessential goods declining.
-Consumers more likely to trade down or use pay later option when making purchases.
-Many G10 Central banks have already started lower rates as they see the recession risk, many have done so with inflation still above the target price, The Fed remains stubborn.
-In most major recession and economic crashes of the past, we have seen a stage of Euphoria which pre-dated it, this is exactly the same conditions we have seen in Crypto, S&P 500 and many other stocks over the last year.
-In many stock market crashes of the past we have seen similar conditions to what we see today with Nvidia. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains are all being supported by Nvidia, yes AI is booming but this also shows risk, firstly it shows extreme greed(FOMO), Secondly it shows investors are not finding value(diversity) in other stocks, this is a huge warning sign for the overall market.
There are many other warning signs, these are just a few that need to be noted.
Each of these warning signs alone are not enough to cause alarm, but when you combine them all (and others) it is time to pay attention.
If the FED had lowered interest rates even once i would have a more positive view, i just cant look past 5-6 cuts now becoming possibly 1.
These signs may take many months to materialize but if(only if) many do it will be terrible for crypto, also note the FED might take drastic steps if these do materialize (lower interest rates too late in desperation, pump stimulus into the economy) this can lead to a last gasp(short lived) Euphoric Bull phase.
If Unemployment starts to break down and we see increased numbers in the next 1-2 months i would advise positioning yourself for the worst case scenario, expect the best but prepare for the worst.
Cash out some/most of your crypto or stocks if this happens(this depends on your short-mid term financial sittuation), ask yourself is the possible 5-10% extra you could make worth the risk of a massive shock( Im assuming most high leverage traders didnt make it this far, so this applies mostly to Spot holders)
I dont presume to know more than the FED, i research and listen to analysts i trust, not paid analysts who are employed to ONLY be bullish.
Now, more than ever, it will be important to monitor the US economic data, especially the labour market, dont ignore or be stubborn if this shows signs of breaking down further.
This is not anti crypto or FUD, i post to try help people who dont understand market risks.
Many new traders dont see how Crypto and the global economy is linked but it is, if we see a recession or crash then crypto prices will be hit hard, it will be a firesale. Crypto is a "Risk on" investment, BTC is the only current store of value.
The FED has stood by its policy for to long, they will need to act fast and correctly in the coming months, it could already be to late(Policy changes take a year or more to have an effect)
The market will be very sensitive to data in the coming months, especially Unemployment and Inflation, before you do anything, before you enter any trade, monitor the news ahead for the week.(Forexfactory.com)
It sucks but the price of Crypto is now firmly in the hands of the FED and the policy decisions they make in the next 3 months, dont be naive and think otherwise.
Please also note i recently did a portfolio breakdown, this seems to contradict that, it doesnt, that portfolio was for long term spot(1-2 years), i purchased many of these projects at the prices i listed, if BTC falls further i will buy more, i also noted in that post and in previous posts that the most sensible option currently is to have most of your portfolio in BTC 60-70%.(Held off exchange)
For now nothing has changed, i still feel those entries were good, should we see further warning signs i will re evaluate(and post), i will hold BTC regardless.
I am not predicting an imminent crash or recession, most analysts and the FED dont foresee a recession, what i am saying is we need to monitor the labour market, we have many warning signs, too many to ignore at this point, if the labour market breaks down further(over a few readings, or a rapid increase in unemployement) it will be the final warning sign i need.
This is not a post intended to make you short the market, as noted things can take many months to materialize(hopefully they wont), we could also see further upside if we get positive readings in the coming months(this is what i want), even if we dont the market might pump if the Fed makes policy moves in desperation.
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
It took me a long time to research and write this post, if you made it this far(and found this helpful) a like is always appreciated.
Thanks for reading.
Peace.
#CryptoTradingGuide #CPIAlert #BTCFOMCWatch #ETHETFsApproved
If you are not interested in understanding broader market risks then dont read further.
If you have a lot of your money invested in Crypto its worth reading.
I am not doing this to spread FUD or sway your decision, my posts are a labour of love, i earn nothing from this.
I own Crypto, I am 100% pro Bitcoin and many other projects, i recently purchased more long term spot.
If you chose the red pill, read on.
Firstly, If we go back to the end of 2023 it was widely predicted that the FED would cut interest rates 5-6 times this year, this would be needed to stave off recession, fast forward 6 months and we have had no cuts, we also have no clear direction, this does not show signs the FED is in control of the US economy.
Powell and the FED are focusing on inflation and unemployment and are using this as validation that their higher for longer stance is working.
Inflation is a lagging indicator, its like looking backwards to see what is ahead of you, also the labour market can collapse at a rapid rate once it starts to deteriorate, it is not always a gradual decline.
Here are some things to consider that show the FED might be about to cause a recession,
-The Sahm rule, The Sahm rule is an indicator which tracks the moving average of unemployment, the rule has applied to every recession since 1948, currently the Sahm indicator is flashing a risk warning, if (only if) unemployment keeps rising at the pace it has in the last 3 months it will trigger the Sahm rule recession warning in the coming months. Unemployment and job loss dynamics feed on themselves, if people lose their jobs, they stop spending money, leading to more jobs losses.
-Spending on the US national debt interest(not debt just the interest) is now the second largest item in the US budget, it has surpassed the National defense and Medicare budget, it is expected to reach $870 Billion in 2024 (3.1% of GDP)
-Hundreds of US banks at risk of failure or falling below their minimum capital requirements.
- Credit card default rates at the highest level in 12 years.
- Delinquency transition rates increased on all debts types in the last quarter.
-Yield Curve inversion is now the longest on record, for decades the Yield curve inversion has been a leading indicator used to signal a recession.
-Pending home sales fell by 7.7% in April, they fell in all regions, this is the slowest pace since 2020. Pending home sales is a forward looking indicator(unlike existing home sales) as the contract is signed several weeks before the house is counted as sold. Pending home sales have a far reaching ripple effect on the economy, when people buy homes they spend on renovations, a morgage is sold, brokers are paid and so on, it is a leading sign of economic health.
-Consumer spending and retail sales declining (Consumers make up 70% of the US GDP)
-Consumers appetite for nonessential goods declining.
-Consumers more likely to trade down or use pay later option when making purchases.
-Many G10 Central banks have already started lower rates as they see the recession risk, many have done so with inflation still above the target price, The Fed remains stubborn.
-In most major recession and economic crashes of the past, we have seen a stage of Euphoria which pre-dated it, this is exactly the same conditions we have seen in Crypto, S&P 500 and many other stocks over the last year.
-In many stock market crashes of the past we have seen similar conditions to what we see today with Nvidia. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains are all being supported by Nvidia, yes AI is booming but this also shows risk, firstly it shows extreme greed(FOMO), Secondly it shows investors are not finding value(diversity) in other stocks, this is a huge warning sign for the overall market.
There are many other warning signs, these are just a few that need to be noted.
Each of these warning signs alone are not enough to cause alarm, but when you combine them all (and others) it is time to pay attention.
If the FED had lowered interest rates even once i would have a more positive view, i just cant look past 5-6 cuts now becoming possibly 1.
These signs may take many months to materialize but if(only if) many do it will be terrible for crypto, also note the FED might take drastic steps if these do materialize (lower interest rates too late in desperation, pump stimulus into the economy) this can lead to a last gasp(short lived) Euphoric Bull phase.
If Unemployment starts to break down and we see increased numbers in the next 1-2 months i would advise positioning yourself for the worst case scenario, expect the best but prepare for the worst.
Cash out some/most of your crypto or stocks if this happens(this depends on your short-mid term financial sittuation), ask yourself is the possible 5-10% extra you could make worth the risk of a massive shock( Im assuming most high leverage traders didnt make it this far, so this applies mostly to Spot holders)
I dont presume to know more than the FED, i research and listen to analysts i trust, not paid analysts who are employed to ONLY be bullish.
Now, more than ever, it will be important to monitor the US economic data, especially the labour market, dont ignore or be stubborn if this shows signs of breaking down further.
This is not anti crypto or FUD, i post to try help people who dont understand market risks.
Many new traders dont see how Crypto and the global economy is linked but it is, if we see a recession or crash then crypto prices will be hit hard, it will be a firesale. Crypto is a "Risk on" investment, BTC is the only current store of value.
The FED has stood by its policy for to long, they will need to act fast and correctly in the coming months, it could already be to late(Policy changes take a year or more to have an effect)
The market will be very sensitive to data in the coming months, especially Unemployment and Inflation, before you do anything, before you enter any trade, monitor the news ahead for the week.(Forexfactory.com)
It sucks but the price of Crypto is now firmly in the hands of the FED and the policy decisions they make in the next 3 months, dont be naive and think otherwise.
Please also note i recently did a portfolio breakdown, this seems to contradict that, it doesnt, that portfolio was for long term spot(1-2 years), i purchased many of these projects at the prices i listed, if BTC falls further i will buy more, i also noted in that post and in previous posts that the most sensible option currently is to have most of your portfolio in BTC 60-70%.(Held off exchange)
For now nothing has changed, i still feel those entries were good, should we see further warning signs i will re evaluate(and post), i will hold BTC regardless.
I am not predicting an imminent crash or recession, most analysts and the FED dont foresee a recession, what i am saying is we need to monitor the labour market, we have many warning signs, too many to ignore at this point, if the labour market breaks down further(over a few readings, or a rapid increase in unemployement) it will be the final warning sign i need.
This is not a post intended to make you short the market, as noted things can take many months to materialize(hopefully they wont), we could also see further upside if we get positive readings in the coming months(this is what i want), even if we dont the market might pump if the Fed makes policy moves in desperation.
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
It took me a long time to research and write this post, if you made it this far(and found this helpful) a like is always appreciated.
Thanks for reading.
Peace.
#CryptoTradingGuide #CPIAlert #BTCFOMCWatch #ETHETFsApproved
A warning for the next couple days.
Pay attention!
I made a similar post a few weeks ago, my prediction then was accurate and i saved some of you from making a massive mistake.
This mildy bullish sentiment we have seen in the last day is not solid, dont believe we cant go lower and the sell pressure has ended.
This slight recovery is only because Crypto trading volume has plummeted in the last 24 hours.(-42% overall)
The large holders and funds are waiting to see what happens in the next couple days.
Tomorrow we have the first Presidential Debate and VERY important unemployment numbers, on Friday we have VERY important Core PCE numbers.
Massive Leverage is open long and short within 2k of the current BTC price.
When we see a build up of leverage that will be decided by news it usually results in huge volatility and huge amounts of liquidations.
The Crypto market has been hit hard over the last week so it might not be as volatile as when i warned about similar conditions a few weeks ago, regardless there is still a large build up of risk, it will keep getting greater in the build up to tomorrow.
Now is not the time to enter high leverage or margin trades.
My advise,
If you want to enter long positions, wait until after the unemployment numbers come out tomorrow(27th June, 12:30pm UTC)
If they are close to the 236k that is forecast then enter long trades.
The Core Pce on Friday is widely expected to be as predicted at 0.1%(bullish for crypto).
Dont enter high margin trades now and get destroyed if the Unemployment numbers give a shock reading, Unemployment numbers are far more volatile and hard to predict, they will have a huge impact if they are off by a lot.
I dont know how much the Presidential debate will effect Crypto, i can only imagine if Crypto is a topic then Trump will say many pro crypto things and it will be Bullish.
If you just wait for the unemployment storm to pass you can see the possible upside from the debate and the PCE.
This is only my opinion, shocks happen.
Peace
#CryptoPCEWatch #BTCFOMCWatch #CryptoTradingGuide #CPIAlert
Pay attention!
I made a similar post a few weeks ago, my prediction then was accurate and i saved some of you from making a massive mistake.
This mildy bullish sentiment we have seen in the last day is not solid, dont believe we cant go lower and the sell pressure has ended.
This slight recovery is only because Crypto trading volume has plummeted in the last 24 hours.(-42% overall)
The large holders and funds are waiting to see what happens in the next couple days.
Tomorrow we have the first Presidential Debate and VERY important unemployment numbers, on Friday we have VERY important Core PCE numbers.
Massive Leverage is open long and short within 2k of the current BTC price.
When we see a build up of leverage that will be decided by news it usually results in huge volatility and huge amounts of liquidations.
The Crypto market has been hit hard over the last week so it might not be as volatile as when i warned about similar conditions a few weeks ago, regardless there is still a large build up of risk, it will keep getting greater in the build up to tomorrow.
Now is not the time to enter high leverage or margin trades.
My advise,
If you want to enter long positions, wait until after the unemployment numbers come out tomorrow(27th June, 12:30pm UTC)
If they are close to the 236k that is forecast then enter long trades.
The Core Pce on Friday is widely expected to be as predicted at 0.1%(bullish for crypto).
Dont enter high margin trades now and get destroyed if the Unemployment numbers give a shock reading, Unemployment numbers are far more volatile and hard to predict, they will have a huge impact if they are off by a lot.
I dont know how much the Presidential debate will effect Crypto, i can only imagine if Crypto is a topic then Trump will say many pro crypto things and it will be Bullish.
If you just wait for the unemployment storm to pass you can see the possible upside from the debate and the PCE.
This is only my opinion, shocks happen.
Peace
#CryptoPCEWatch #BTCFOMCWatch #CryptoTradingGuide #CPIAlert
Most prices targets I set in my portfolio breakdown were hit.(Posted June 15th)
I posted these price targets before this current correction based on analysis and the Crypto market cap range, I did mention the market had room to fall and these offered the best entries.
I would be interested to know if anyone did follow this advice and got on at the entry prices I suggested.
If you did your portfolio should look something like this,
30% BTC $62300 entry
12% SOL $129 Entry
12% ETH $3270 Entry
6% Jasmy $0.028 entry
5% Beam $0.17 entry
5% AR $23 or INJ $20 Entry
5% RNDR $6.5 or Rune $4 entry
5% AGIX $0.5 entry
5% Doge 0.1212 Entry
10% AVAX $25 (this was if you decided on a safer option and not higher risk-reward tokens I mentioned)
Some price targets I set were not hit.
Let’s monitor how this performs in the coming months.
I still stand by this portfolio breakdown and the price targets I set, if you can get on these projects in the coming weeks at these price targets I still think they offer well balanced value for 1-2 year spot holding.
✌️
#CryptoTradingGuide #LayerZero #BinanceTournament #Megadrop
I posted these price targets before this current correction based on analysis and the Crypto market cap range, I did mention the market had room to fall and these offered the best entries.
I would be interested to know if anyone did follow this advice and got on at the entry prices I suggested.
If you did your portfolio should look something like this,
30% BTC $62300 entry
12% SOL $129 Entry
12% ETH $3270 Entry
6% Jasmy $0.028 entry
5% Beam $0.17 entry
5% AR $23 or INJ $20 Entry
5% RNDR $6.5 or Rune $4 entry
5% AGIX $0.5 entry
5% Doge 0.1212 Entry
10% AVAX $25 (this was if you decided on a safer option and not higher risk-reward tokens I mentioned)
Some price targets I set were not hit.
Let’s monitor how this performs in the coming months.
I still stand by this portfolio breakdown and the price targets I set, if you can get on these projects in the coming weeks at these price targets I still think they offer well balanced value for 1-2 year spot holding.
✌️
#CryptoTradingGuide #LayerZero #BinanceTournament #Megadrop
A week split in 2.
Calm slightly Bullish conditions until late Wednesday-Thursday.
On Thursday the storm starts.(12:30pm UTC)
This week has a lot of high impact news but the main focus will on 2 major things,
1- Unemployment claims on the 27th June.
I personally think if(only if) we see further major downside in crypto it will be because the large funds are pricing in a possible recession.
Labour and unemployment will be a key focus, the readings now are critical, they are expected at 240k and we need them to come in around 5k either side of that, a collapse in the labour market happens fast if a recession looms.
Most analysts don’t predict a recession but a few well respected ones who predicted the 2008 crash have started to say it is getting more likely towards the end of 2024- early 2025.
Both the pessimists and optimists make valid points, I am researching further and will post about it in the coming days.
2- Core PCE 28th June.
If you follow the market you will know this is the FEDs preferred gauge of inflation, I have read reports from 4 separate analysts and they predict 0.11%-0.15%, if it does come out around 0.1% as expected it would be a good reading for crypto.
The FOMC statement(June 12th) that has driven down crypto prices did not take into account the CPI(inflation) data from earlier that day, the fed predicted only 1 rate cut in the statement, the good CPI readings that were not accounted for lead many to believe the statement was already outdated on release.
To put it simply, we need the unemployment and PCE to be as expected and it will be good for crypto.(It will keep 2 cuts possible and fears of a recession at bay)
If unemployment has a steep rise it’s probably time to abandon ship.
If you want to enter short term trades in the coming days and you are in profit nearing Thursday I would advise taking partial/full profits.
I expect a LOT of volatility on Thursday(Unemployment, Pending home sales, GDP q/q) and Friday(Core PCE)
✌️
#BTCFOMCWatch #CPIAlert #BTC☀ #LayerZero
Calm slightly Bullish conditions until late Wednesday-Thursday.
On Thursday the storm starts.(12:30pm UTC)
This week has a lot of high impact news but the main focus will on 2 major things,
1- Unemployment claims on the 27th June.
I personally think if(only if) we see further major downside in crypto it will be because the large funds are pricing in a possible recession.
Labour and unemployment will be a key focus, the readings now are critical, they are expected at 240k and we need them to come in around 5k either side of that, a collapse in the labour market happens fast if a recession looms.
Most analysts don’t predict a recession but a few well respected ones who predicted the 2008 crash have started to say it is getting more likely towards the end of 2024- early 2025.
Both the pessimists and optimists make valid points, I am researching further and will post about it in the coming days.
2- Core PCE 28th June.
If you follow the market you will know this is the FEDs preferred gauge of inflation, I have read reports from 4 separate analysts and they predict 0.11%-0.15%, if it does come out around 0.1% as expected it would be a good reading for crypto.
The FOMC statement(June 12th) that has driven down crypto prices did not take into account the CPI(inflation) data from earlier that day, the fed predicted only 1 rate cut in the statement, the good CPI readings that were not accounted for lead many to believe the statement was already outdated on release.
To put it simply, we need the unemployment and PCE to be as expected and it will be good for crypto.(It will keep 2 cuts possible and fears of a recession at bay)
If unemployment has a steep rise it’s probably time to abandon ship.
If you want to enter short term trades in the coming days and you are in profit nearing Thursday I would advise taking partial/full profits.
I expect a LOT of volatility on Thursday(Unemployment, Pending home sales, GDP q/q) and Friday(Core PCE)
✌️
#BTCFOMCWatch #CPIAlert #BTC☀ #LayerZero
If you are failing at crypto, the problem is likely the mistakes you keep repeating.
I don’t mean this in an ugly or judgmental way.
For most of my life I was my own worst enemy, still am in many ways, realising this in trading was my first step to stopping the endless cycle of suffering and outside blame.
You can do it too, really you can.
These quotes might help,
“Everything will be okay in the end, if it’s not okay, it’s not the end.”
“Courage doesn’t always Roar. Sometimes courage is the quiet voice at the end of the day saying ‘I will try again tomorrow’ “
"We are what we repeatedly do, therefore, excellence is not an act, but a habit "
"The worlds best traders have all walked the exact same path you are on now"
"The secret to trading is not being the smartest guy, its being the most disciplined one"
Lastly but most importantly,
" If you want to get older, without getting better, keep relearning the same lesson over and over again.If you keep making the same mistake over and over, the mistake is not the problem, you are. "
There is no quick fix for large crypto losses, only better decisions which in turn will lead to crypto gains.
Most importantly life is to short, the anxiety and depression from large losses lasts a lot longer than the highs from a quick gain.
I have made a lot of money in a day, felt happy for a few minutes, lost a lot and felt sad for days-weeks, also treated people around me in a way they didn’t deserve based on the anger i felt towards myself.
When it clicked for me is when I set myself a small target each day, and a goal for the month.I failed a few times, kept learning and tried again, not for the money for myself, my daily,monthly target was purely about my discipline, when i did finally achieve it the happiness I felt off the small amount I made over the month was worth 50x more than any monetary amount I had ever made in a day.
Every great journey starts with a single step.
Peace
#motivation #CryptoTradingGuide #ETHETFsApproved
I don’t mean this in an ugly or judgmental way.
For most of my life I was my own worst enemy, still am in many ways, realising this in trading was my first step to stopping the endless cycle of suffering and outside blame.
You can do it too, really you can.
These quotes might help,
“Everything will be okay in the end, if it’s not okay, it’s not the end.”
“Courage doesn’t always Roar. Sometimes courage is the quiet voice at the end of the day saying ‘I will try again tomorrow’ “
"We are what we repeatedly do, therefore, excellence is not an act, but a habit "
"The worlds best traders have all walked the exact same path you are on now"
"The secret to trading is not being the smartest guy, its being the most disciplined one"
Lastly but most importantly,
" If you want to get older, without getting better, keep relearning the same lesson over and over again.If you keep making the same mistake over and over, the mistake is not the problem, you are. "
There is no quick fix for large crypto losses, only better decisions which in turn will lead to crypto gains.
Most importantly life is to short, the anxiety and depression from large losses lasts a lot longer than the highs from a quick gain.
I have made a lot of money in a day, felt happy for a few minutes, lost a lot and felt sad for days-weeks, also treated people around me in a way they didn’t deserve based on the anger i felt towards myself.
When it clicked for me is when I set myself a small target each day, and a goal for the month.I failed a few times, kept learning and tried again, not for the money for myself, my daily,monthly target was purely about my discipline, when i did finally achieve it the happiness I felt off the small amount I made over the month was worth 50x more than any monetary amount I had ever made in a day.
Every great journey starts with a single step.
Peace
#motivation #CryptoTradingGuide #ETHETFsApproved
A parabolic ALT season wont happen in 2024.
Ignore the false hype, these are the facts.
1-BTC Dominance,
Bitcoin Dominance will not fall enough, this is where the institutional, store of value money is going.
2- VC Gains,
VC funded projects are killing the market, there is no good or fair entries for retail to invest and profit off new projects, we pay 50x more than early VC investors do, these VC profits do not flow back in the ALT market, most importantly they dilute liquidity.
3- New Tokens,
Since April we have had over 1 million new tokens introduced, this is utter madness and it dilutes liquidity in the market.
$150-$200 Million worth of new supply enters the market daily, if no new liquidity(investment) comes into the Crypto market to support this then these funds are sucked out of other ALT projects.
These projects dilute Crypto, it is exactly the same as governments printing money, we are just increasing the supply of tokens and to sustain it we need huge amounts of capital invested into crypto, currently all they do is dilute, devalue crypto.
4- The US interest rates,
This is one of the main factors that will determine how much money goes into the Crypto market in the coming year, we have already been priced in for 3 or 2 cuts in the last month and ALT season didnt start, now its down to 1, even at 2 cuts it wont support ALT season.
5- Centralised AI ,
As the AI goldrush booms, many large crypto mining or network securing projects are diversifying or switching to use their computing power for centralised AI as the gains are far greater(for now), as this happens many of these firms reduce their crypto holdings and in doing so create sell pressure on the market.
While all of these factors effect Crypto as a whole, the lower cap ALTS will be effected the most as institutional money will still invest in high cap protects like BTC, ETH, SOL and others.
Many ALTS could still see good gains in the coming months but have realistic expectations, dont be fooled by get rich quick ideas.
Peace
#CPIAlert #altcoins #Market_Update #BTC
Ignore the false hype, these are the facts.
1-BTC Dominance,
Bitcoin Dominance will not fall enough, this is where the institutional, store of value money is going.
2- VC Gains,
VC funded projects are killing the market, there is no good or fair entries for retail to invest and profit off new projects, we pay 50x more than early VC investors do, these VC profits do not flow back in the ALT market, most importantly they dilute liquidity.
3- New Tokens,
Since April we have had over 1 million new tokens introduced, this is utter madness and it dilutes liquidity in the market.
$150-$200 Million worth of new supply enters the market daily, if no new liquidity(investment) comes into the Crypto market to support this then these funds are sucked out of other ALT projects.
These projects dilute Crypto, it is exactly the same as governments printing money, we are just increasing the supply of tokens and to sustain it we need huge amounts of capital invested into crypto, currently all they do is dilute, devalue crypto.
4- The US interest rates,
This is one of the main factors that will determine how much money goes into the Crypto market in the coming year, we have already been priced in for 3 or 2 cuts in the last month and ALT season didnt start, now its down to 1, even at 2 cuts it wont support ALT season.
5- Centralised AI ,
As the AI goldrush booms, many large crypto mining or network securing projects are diversifying or switching to use their computing power for centralised AI as the gains are far greater(for now), as this happens many of these firms reduce their crypto holdings and in doing so create sell pressure on the market.
While all of these factors effect Crypto as a whole, the lower cap ALTS will be effected the most as institutional money will still invest in high cap protects like BTC, ETH, SOL and others.
Many ALTS could still see good gains in the coming months but have realistic expectations, dont be fooled by get rich quick ideas.
Peace
#CPIAlert #altcoins #Market_Update #BTC
Short term trading conditions are still not ideal.
Dont lose money chasing losses now.
We are still in the middle of the overall Crypto market cap.
A lesson for newer traders, (See Daily Total image)
When you see candles like we saw on the daily Crypto market cap from yesterday (candles with a medium body and long wick), there is a strong likelyhood price will test that wicked area in the near future, works mostly on higher time frames 1H or more.
We could see price drops to test the middle of that wick zone($2.275T) in the coming days, we are still above the Crypto range low of $2.165T
*Edit* new included image shows this happened, 2 days later and price sits at exactly $2.275 currently.
Also note BTC dominance is still way above any level to start an ALT season, Currently 55%, we would need a substantial drop to see any ALT season start and i dont believe that will happen.
The only time this year we have even come close to 50% BTC dominance is after the BTC ETF when Grayscale ETF shares were sold off which caused huge temporary sell pressure on BTC, the price and BTC dominance quickly recovered.
If you insist on investing in the current market conditions then your best and safest option is to invest most of your funds into BTC.
We have no clear direction at the moment and we have room to test the range low.
Tomorrow will be key!
Tomorrow we have US unemployment claims, this will be a key focus for traders as employement is a key factor the FED uses to determine Policy.
We have fallen in price in the last week as the optimistic view of 3 cuts,was then moved to 2 cuts, and then the FED said it will likely be only 1 cut, this was terrible for crypto. We now need a lot of future inflation and Jobs data to go in our favour for 2 interest rate cuts to become possible again.
Honestly short term trading now is just guessing, if you got into spot on this dip then dont panic if prices fall a little more, we still have room to fall and recover.
Now is not the time for Shitcoins!
Be Smart
Peace
#CPIAlert #altcoins #BTC #ETHETFsApproved
Dont lose money chasing losses now.
We are still in the middle of the overall Crypto market cap.
A lesson for newer traders, (See Daily Total image)
When you see candles like we saw on the daily Crypto market cap from yesterday (candles with a medium body and long wick), there is a strong likelyhood price will test that wicked area in the near future, works mostly on higher time frames 1H or more.
We could see price drops to test the middle of that wick zone($2.275T) in the coming days, we are still above the Crypto range low of $2.165T
*Edit* new included image shows this happened, 2 days later and price sits at exactly $2.275 currently.
Also note BTC dominance is still way above any level to start an ALT season, Currently 55%, we would need a substantial drop to see any ALT season start and i dont believe that will happen.
The only time this year we have even come close to 50% BTC dominance is after the BTC ETF when Grayscale ETF shares were sold off which caused huge temporary sell pressure on BTC, the price and BTC dominance quickly recovered.
If you insist on investing in the current market conditions then your best and safest option is to invest most of your funds into BTC.
We have no clear direction at the moment and we have room to test the range low.
Tomorrow will be key!
Tomorrow we have US unemployment claims, this will be a key focus for traders as employement is a key factor the FED uses to determine Policy.
We have fallen in price in the last week as the optimistic view of 3 cuts,was then moved to 2 cuts, and then the FED said it will likely be only 1 cut, this was terrible for crypto. We now need a lot of future inflation and Jobs data to go in our favour for 2 interest rate cuts to become possible again.
Honestly short term trading now is just guessing, if you got into spot on this dip then dont panic if prices fall a little more, we still have room to fall and recover.
Now is not the time for Shitcoins!
Be Smart
Peace
#CPIAlert #altcoins #BTC #ETHETFsApproved
Dont panic
Now is the time to accumulate good projects.
To start out many of the price target i listed on my portfolio breakdown have been hit , i still feel very comfortable and confident these will offer great long term entries.
For people who follow me you will know i have been saying for weeks that no parabolic ALT season is coming.
In the last days we have seen ALTS plummet and BTC dominance skyrocket.
I know my advise is boring when i say have most of your Portfolio in BTC but it is the most profitable advise currently.
Now is the time to accumulate projects that will see institutionl money and adoption in the coming years, most importantly BTC,ETH and SOL
The SOL price target i set at $129 has been hit, BTC and ETH could still fall a little further but even at current prices i feel they offer long term value.
Many other projects i listed hit the price targets i set, hopefully people who follow me got on to these price entries.
The Overall Crypto Market cap has been ranging for months, we are still above the range low of $2.165T, to be macro bearish we would need multiple daily candles below $2.15T
Dont panic, now is the time to get into solid projects at discount prices.
If you want to invest in more volatile ALTS then use 10-15% of your bankroll, be prepared to take profits on these as we might range for months.
Now is the time to have the core of your portfolio invested in solid projects, even if they have high MC and FDV.
I have said for a long time most of crypto is over valued and a lot is just garbage made for VC gains or without any justification for their market caps, all these projects just drain liquidity.
I think over the next years the projects with institutional investments will offer the best % returns,i think a lot of dead liquidity will flow back into these projects,i think we might see the reverse of ALT cycles in past years.
Now is the time to be buying what the whales will be buying in the coming years,get in at discount prices on these projects and hold, profits will come!
Peace
#CPIAlert #altcoins #BTC #ETHETFsApproved
Now is the time to accumulate good projects.
To start out many of the price target i listed on my portfolio breakdown have been hit , i still feel very comfortable and confident these will offer great long term entries.
For people who follow me you will know i have been saying for weeks that no parabolic ALT season is coming.
In the last days we have seen ALTS plummet and BTC dominance skyrocket.
I know my advise is boring when i say have most of your Portfolio in BTC but it is the most profitable advise currently.
Now is the time to accumulate projects that will see institutionl money and adoption in the coming years, most importantly BTC,ETH and SOL
The SOL price target i set at $129 has been hit, BTC and ETH could still fall a little further but even at current prices i feel they offer long term value.
Many other projects i listed hit the price targets i set, hopefully people who follow me got on to these price entries.
The Overall Crypto Market cap has been ranging for months, we are still above the range low of $2.165T, to be macro bearish we would need multiple daily candles below $2.15T
Dont panic, now is the time to get into solid projects at discount prices.
If you want to invest in more volatile ALTS then use 10-15% of your bankroll, be prepared to take profits on these as we might range for months.
Now is the time to have the core of your portfolio invested in solid projects, even if they have high MC and FDV.
I have said for a long time most of crypto is over valued and a lot is just garbage made for VC gains or without any justification for their market caps, all these projects just drain liquidity.
I think over the next years the projects with institutional investments will offer the best % returns,i think a lot of dead liquidity will flow back into these projects,i think we might see the reverse of ALT cycles in past years.
Now is the time to be buying what the whales will be buying in the coming years,get in at discount prices on these projects and hold, profits will come!
Peace
#CPIAlert #altcoins #BTC #ETHETFsApproved
PYTH update.
Firstly this is not an “I told you so “ post.
I am posting this as an example of why a deeper understanding of crypto and who you listen to is important.
3 weeks(22nd may) ago I made a post saying sell your PYTH.(I got a lot of hate)
This was based on 2 factors,
Firstly, I researched and shared my research(20th may post) about the effects large token unlocks have in the weeks AFTER large tokens unlocks happen (Research based on 500 large token unlock events)
This research found that tokens can stabilise or increase in price in the days around the unlocking event only to then substantially drop in price to below the price at the time of the unlock in following weeks.
Secondly, I found out through deeper research that the project team had unlocked tokens prior to the unlocking schedule,they also excluded long time community members and ignored their requests for further info about the project teams early unlock.
My research regarding the effects of unlocks and also the dishonesty shown by the project team gave me the confidence to post that people should sell PYTH.
I shorted PYTH at the time(0.4659) and have hit both my TP.
Not one single comment agreed with me and most people said I was an idiot spreading FUD.
I don’t post get rich schemes, for the most part my posts are to educate and warn traders about risks, risks they might not have the understanding to see, it takes a lot of time to connect the dots in crypto.
Some people on square post for dishonest reasons or scams, i don’t, i have no links to any projects and i have earned 0 directly or indirectly from posting on Square.
Please don’t ask me if now is a good time to buy PYTH, I would never recommend any project where the project team acts in this manner.
✌️
#PYTHUSDT📈 #pyth #altcoins #
Firstly this is not an “I told you so “ post.
I am posting this as an example of why a deeper understanding of crypto and who you listen to is important.
3 weeks(22nd may) ago I made a post saying sell your PYTH.(I got a lot of hate)
This was based on 2 factors,
Firstly, I researched and shared my research(20th may post) about the effects large token unlocks have in the weeks AFTER large tokens unlocks happen (Research based on 500 large token unlock events)
This research found that tokens can stabilise or increase in price in the days around the unlocking event only to then substantially drop in price to below the price at the time of the unlock in following weeks.
Secondly, I found out through deeper research that the project team had unlocked tokens prior to the unlocking schedule,they also excluded long time community members and ignored their requests for further info about the project teams early unlock.
My research regarding the effects of unlocks and also the dishonesty shown by the project team gave me the confidence to post that people should sell PYTH.
I shorted PYTH at the time(0.4659) and have hit both my TP.
Not one single comment agreed with me and most people said I was an idiot spreading FUD.
I don’t post get rich schemes, for the most part my posts are to educate and warn traders about risks, risks they might not have the understanding to see, it takes a lot of time to connect the dots in crypto.
Some people on square post for dishonest reasons or scams, i don’t, i have no links to any projects and i have earned 0 directly or indirectly from posting on Square.
Please don’t ask me if now is a good time to buy PYTH, I would never recommend any project where the project team acts in this manner.
✌️
#PYTHUSDT📈 #pyth #altcoins #
A sensible portfolio breakdown.
With price targets.
This first category can be entered into at current market prices if you intend to hold spot for 1-2 years, they all have room to fall so have patience and you can find better entries,
Best risk-reward entries,
BTC - $62 300
ETH - $3270
SOL - $129
AR - $23
Beam -$ 0.017
Agix- $0.05
INJ-$20
Jasmy- $0.028
Rune- $4
RNDR-$6.5
BNB $550
Link $13
These projects i would look for price to drop before entering.
Doge $0.1212
Trx- $0.108
Ondo - $0.976
Ton- $5.7-$6
Pepe- $0.000008
Avax-$23-$25
My allocation advise(If you enter now)
Must have,
30% BTC
12% ETH
12% SOL
Solid options,
10% BNB staking
5% RNDR, Rune
5% AR, INJ,LINK
5% AGIX
Higher % returns options(Good 5x potential in the next year)
6% Jasmy
5% Beam
=90%
If we see further price falls and you can get entries on Ton, Ondo, Doge, Pepe, Ava near to the price targets I have set, I would do as follows,
BNB->Ton
Rune->Doge
AR->Ondo
AGIX->Pepe
With the other 10%(lower risk)
Chose between,
BNB(If you purchased Ton instead)
Ava
Link
TRX
Higher risk,
Look at projects with short-mid term potential, ENA, W, NOT, Jito, BB, other re staking or meme coins and so on, i would NOT invest a large % of my portfolio across these types of projects at this stage of the cycle, if you want the possible risk and upside, use the 10% remaining for this.
I think BTC dominance won’t fall enough to warrant less than 30%(minimum) into BTC, the most secure option is put most (60-70%) into BTC especially if it drops to 60-63k.
Owning a lot of projects doesn’t make sense at this point in the cycle, the ones that crash 20% in days just hurt your portfolio to much.
I think as we see further adoption we will see stand out projects and they will attract the most liquidity and hold up better to market dips.
I think including a couple projects with 5x potential in months-year is perfect(for 10-15% of bankroll), the core of your portfolio should be where the institutional money and adoption will go in the coming years.
✌️
#ETHETFsApproved #BTC #altcoins #bitcoin
With price targets.
This first category can be entered into at current market prices if you intend to hold spot for 1-2 years, they all have room to fall so have patience and you can find better entries,
Best risk-reward entries,
BTC - $62 300
ETH - $3270
SOL - $129
AR - $23
Beam -$ 0.017
Agix- $0.05
INJ-$20
Jasmy- $0.028
Rune- $4
RNDR-$6.5
BNB $550
Link $13
These projects i would look for price to drop before entering.
Doge $0.1212
Trx- $0.108
Ondo - $0.976
Ton- $5.7-$6
Pepe- $0.000008
Avax-$23-$25
My allocation advise(If you enter now)
Must have,
30% BTC
12% ETH
12% SOL
Solid options,
10% BNB staking
5% RNDR, Rune
5% AR, INJ,LINK
5% AGIX
Higher % returns options(Good 5x potential in the next year)
6% Jasmy
5% Beam
=90%
If we see further price falls and you can get entries on Ton, Ondo, Doge, Pepe, Ava near to the price targets I have set, I would do as follows,
BNB->Ton
Rune->Doge
AR->Ondo
AGIX->Pepe
With the other 10%(lower risk)
Chose between,
BNB(If you purchased Ton instead)
Ava
Link
TRX
Higher risk,
Look at projects with short-mid term potential, ENA, W, NOT, Jito, BB, other re staking or meme coins and so on, i would NOT invest a large % of my portfolio across these types of projects at this stage of the cycle, if you want the possible risk and upside, use the 10% remaining for this.
I think BTC dominance won’t fall enough to warrant less than 30%(minimum) into BTC, the most secure option is put most (60-70%) into BTC especially if it drops to 60-63k.
Owning a lot of projects doesn’t make sense at this point in the cycle, the ones that crash 20% in days just hurt your portfolio to much.
I think as we see further adoption we will see stand out projects and they will attract the most liquidity and hold up better to market dips.
I think including a couple projects with 5x potential in months-year is perfect(for 10-15% of bankroll), the core of your portfolio should be where the institutional money and adoption will go in the coming years.
✌️
#ETHETFsApproved #BTC #altcoins #bitcoin
Market update.
Firstly, to everyone i replied to in the last couple days asking for advise, i have not forgotten about you, i just dont think we have great entries at the moment.
My post from earlier in the week said we still have room to fall, we have fallen and could still fall further.
I still see the best entries nearing the $2.2-$2.15 Trillion Overall Crypto market cap.
Patience for now is key, if you are down the best way to recover those losses are,
-Firstly, dont lose more money chasing and trading irrationally.
-Secondly, find entries that will offer the best risk-reward ratio.
We are still lost in the middle at the moment, it could calm down or we could see further drops to the Market cap range low.(Im researching factors that could decide price action short-mid term)
I dont want to just post for the sake of it, i have only been posting for a short time, in this time i have seen i need to be more aware of what i post and how it could be taken, i have seen a large part of the crypto community lacks direction and will be easily led to invest without further research.
I stand by what i post and the advise i give, my advise for now is just wait.
I know this is the hardest when you are down a lot, but this is when taking a break, clearing your mind and finding the best entries(not based on desperation) is most important.
I am doing research for a sensible portfolio breakdown for newer traders looking to enter or people who have lost money in the last week, it will include price entries i think offer good value, i will post it in the coming days.
As always i am happy to answer questions and help where i can.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Peace
#BinanceTournament #ETHETFsApproved #altcoins #BTC
Firstly, to everyone i replied to in the last couple days asking for advise, i have not forgotten about you, i just dont think we have great entries at the moment.
My post from earlier in the week said we still have room to fall, we have fallen and could still fall further.
I still see the best entries nearing the $2.2-$2.15 Trillion Overall Crypto market cap.
Patience for now is key, if you are down the best way to recover those losses are,
-Firstly, dont lose more money chasing and trading irrationally.
-Secondly, find entries that will offer the best risk-reward ratio.
We are still lost in the middle at the moment, it could calm down or we could see further drops to the Market cap range low.(Im researching factors that could decide price action short-mid term)
I dont want to just post for the sake of it, i have only been posting for a short time, in this time i have seen i need to be more aware of what i post and how it could be taken, i have seen a large part of the crypto community lacks direction and will be easily led to invest without further research.
I stand by what i post and the advise i give, my advise for now is just wait.
I know this is the hardest when you are down a lot, but this is when taking a break, clearing your mind and finding the best entries(not based on desperation) is most important.
I am doing research for a sensible portfolio breakdown for newer traders looking to enter or people who have lost money in the last week, it will include price entries i think offer good value, i will post it in the coming days.
As always i am happy to answer questions and help where i can.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Peace
#BinanceTournament #ETHETFsApproved #altcoins #BTC
Please don’t fall for this trap.
#ionet
Price $6
I posted the other day about this.
What is happening with IO price currently is a pump and dump in the making.
Connect the dots, when did BNB reach ATH, was it during the launchpool ? Did the price plummet towards the end of the farming period?
This is because the VCs are so greedy they now farm their own launchpool to stop sell pressure on launch.(obviously not directly, based on my opinion and research only)
Seriously people wake up, you are all making this way to easy for them.
I don’t know how high they will let it go before they dump their farmed tokens but it will be a bloodbath for leveraged retail when they do.
This project already has a $5 Billion FDV
Entering now is madness, please don’t make that mistake.
I would much rather you come back and call me an idiot if it pumps 20%more than you come back and be liquidated because it dumped.
This is not fair value for retail, it could go a little higher $6.5- $7 or it could dump at any time, it’s totally manipulated and depends on when they offload their farmed tokens.
Please don’t high leverage or high margin long at current prices around or above $6, there is to much chance for a large dump and you get liquidated
*If you believe in the project and want to hold spot for months or years then go for it*
*Edit June 13th* 10 hours after this post the price has fallen from $6.3 to $4.68(over 25%)my warning was correct, it could still fall more, if it falls lower then the decisions to enter are up to you, this post was based on the conditions at the time i wrote it, i wont follow this project more for now*
*Edit June 18th* Price continued to fall to $3.5, down 40% since my post
Be smart.
✌️
#ionet #altcoins #io.net #Launchpool
#ionet
Price $6
I posted the other day about this.
What is happening with IO price currently is a pump and dump in the making.
Connect the dots, when did BNB reach ATH, was it during the launchpool ? Did the price plummet towards the end of the farming period?
This is because the VCs are so greedy they now farm their own launchpool to stop sell pressure on launch.(obviously not directly, based on my opinion and research only)
Seriously people wake up, you are all making this way to easy for them.
I don’t know how high they will let it go before they dump their farmed tokens but it will be a bloodbath for leveraged retail when they do.
This project already has a $5 Billion FDV
Entering now is madness, please don’t make that mistake.
I would much rather you come back and call me an idiot if it pumps 20%more than you come back and be liquidated because it dumped.
This is not fair value for retail, it could go a little higher $6.5- $7 or it could dump at any time, it’s totally manipulated and depends on when they offload their farmed tokens.
Please don’t high leverage or high margin long at current prices around or above $6, there is to much chance for a large dump and you get liquidated
*If you believe in the project and want to hold spot for months or years then go for it*
*Edit June 13th* 10 hours after this post the price has fallen from $6.3 to $4.68(over 25%)my warning was correct, it could still fall more, if it falls lower then the decisions to enter are up to you, this post was based on the conditions at the time i wrote it, i wont follow this project more for now*
*Edit June 18th* Price continued to fall to $3.5, down 40% since my post
Be smart.
✌️
#ionet #altcoins #io.net #Launchpool
So basically as expected.
If you read my post from a couple days ago i said the FOMC would likely be volatile but like always Powell would say they need further data.
This is what happened.
The CPI data gave us hope but Powell, as in all recent meetings stated they need more proof, more data.
The FED gave little indication of when they could cut rates, the CPI and the following FOMC was basically a pump and dump for crypto, as it has been many times this year.
*This is why in my post an hour before FOMC i said dont high leverage or margin based on CPI data, i really hope people are starting to listen to me, i have method in my madness, its not just drama or FUD*
I would also like to point out a Japanese reporter asked about the US inflation effecting outside economies(as i mentioned in a previous post regarding the effect of carry trading) Powell tried to avoid answering saying that it was the treasuries decision how that is handled.
Dont be fooled, the outside effect and the pressure from other central banks will be focused heavily on the FED lowering rates, the longer they stay Substantially above Europe, Canada and Asia the worse it is for the global economy.(Read my "Wednesday is key" post if you want further info)
I think it is a near certainty they will lower rates in September, i think they dont have a choice.
Until then we will just have to suffer the ups and downs of Crypto and eveything that effects its price.
I dont see any sustained break above $2.6T Crypto Market cap until interest rates are lowered, be aware entering longs when we are near this point.
Dont forget tomorrow we have PPI and Unemployement and Friday the BOJ policy decisions.
Most of the storm has passed but we will still have volatility ahead this week.
Be smart
Peace.
#BTCFOMCWatch #altcoins #bitcoin #TopCoinsJune2024
If you read my post from a couple days ago i said the FOMC would likely be volatile but like always Powell would say they need further data.
This is what happened.
The CPI data gave us hope but Powell, as in all recent meetings stated they need more proof, more data.
The FED gave little indication of when they could cut rates, the CPI and the following FOMC was basically a pump and dump for crypto, as it has been many times this year.
*This is why in my post an hour before FOMC i said dont high leverage or margin based on CPI data, i really hope people are starting to listen to me, i have method in my madness, its not just drama or FUD*
I would also like to point out a Japanese reporter asked about the US inflation effecting outside economies(as i mentioned in a previous post regarding the effect of carry trading) Powell tried to avoid answering saying that it was the treasuries decision how that is handled.
Dont be fooled, the outside effect and the pressure from other central banks will be focused heavily on the FED lowering rates, the longer they stay Substantially above Europe, Canada and Asia the worse it is for the global economy.(Read my "Wednesday is key" post if you want further info)
I think it is a near certainty they will lower rates in September, i think they dont have a choice.
Until then we will just have to suffer the ups and downs of Crypto and eveything that effects its price.
I dont see any sustained break above $2.6T Crypto Market cap until interest rates are lowered, be aware entering longs when we are near this point.
Dont forget tomorrow we have PPI and Unemployement and Friday the BOJ policy decisions.
Most of the storm has passed but we will still have volatility ahead this week.
Be smart
Peace.
#BTCFOMCWatch #altcoins #bitcoin #TopCoinsJune2024
Some Crypto advise for the months to come.
*For newer traders or traders who lose trading leverage*
This is solely advise for people who intend to invest funds at any time in the coming months, it is not a price prediction but it is the most realistic way for most retail traders to make profit and stay safe.
This will protect you from short term manipulations, liquidations, but MOST importantly it will protect you from yourself!
70% into spot BTC
Basically any amount you intent to invest or leverage trade for the rest of the year, before doing so put 70% of those funds into spot BTC.
I dont care what price BTC is at that time, if you already intended on an investment or a leveraged trade, 70% goes into SPOT BTC first.
The 30% you have remaining use for speculation, treat that as your bankroll, try profit off that and buy into further projects you like.
This is not a get rich quick scheme , if you want to get investment advise from YT shorts or Square posts saying 100x i cant stop you, has it worked in the past?
Would this posts advise have been more profitable for you in the past 3 months?
This is sensible and realistic advise that will serve you well in the months to come.
For many reasons i dont believe BTC dominance(55.47%) will fall enough to start a parabolic ALT season this year.
It makes little sense to make NEW investments, especially leveraged, into anything besides BTC in the coming months.
Note,
If you take this advise dont deviate.
Not matter what, you hold the spot BTC.
If you lose the 30% for speculation you dont touch the BTC.
If you deposit further funds, 70% of those funds go into SPOT BTC.
DONT touch the BTC
Store the BTC in an off exchange wallet or cold storage.
I promise over the next year if you stick to this advise you will be far more profitable than trying to go for quick gains or predict the market.
It wont be easy, it will take discipline but it will pay off.
If you are a profitable and desciplined short term trader, congrats, this post is not aimed at you.
Peace
#BTC #bitcoin #altcoins #TopCoinsJune2024
*For newer traders or traders who lose trading leverage*
This is solely advise for people who intend to invest funds at any time in the coming months, it is not a price prediction but it is the most realistic way for most retail traders to make profit and stay safe.
This will protect you from short term manipulations, liquidations, but MOST importantly it will protect you from yourself!
70% into spot BTC
Basically any amount you intent to invest or leverage trade for the rest of the year, before doing so put 70% of those funds into spot BTC.
I dont care what price BTC is at that time, if you already intended on an investment or a leveraged trade, 70% goes into SPOT BTC first.
The 30% you have remaining use for speculation, treat that as your bankroll, try profit off that and buy into further projects you like.
This is not a get rich quick scheme , if you want to get investment advise from YT shorts or Square posts saying 100x i cant stop you, has it worked in the past?
Would this posts advise have been more profitable for you in the past 3 months?
This is sensible and realistic advise that will serve you well in the months to come.
For many reasons i dont believe BTC dominance(55.47%) will fall enough to start a parabolic ALT season this year.
It makes little sense to make NEW investments, especially leveraged, into anything besides BTC in the coming months.
Note,
If you take this advise dont deviate.
Not matter what, you hold the spot BTC.
If you lose the 30% for speculation you dont touch the BTC.
If you deposit further funds, 70% of those funds go into SPOT BTC.
DONT touch the BTC
Store the BTC in an off exchange wallet or cold storage.
I promise over the next year if you stick to this advise you will be far more profitable than trying to go for quick gains or predict the market.
It wont be easy, it will take discipline but it will pay off.
If you are a profitable and desciplined short term trader, congrats, this post is not aimed at you.
Peace
#BTC #bitcoin #altcoins #TopCoinsJune2024
Market Update.
The CPI was good for Crypto, but the Funds rate(which wont be effected by todays readings) and FOMC will decide everything.
Firstly the CPI news is great for Crypto, i did say in my post about "Wednesday being Key" would should see a drop of 0.1% in Y.Y we also saw a drop in M.M.
Note these readings will not effect the rates decision today, they will effect what is said at the FOMC press conference though.(Future outlook)
The Jobs market needs to slow to to lower Interest rates.(why friday hurt the crypto market)
I predict we will see a likely outcome that the Powell states 2 Cuts remain the likely possibility, the first being September(this will be slightly Bullish for Crypto)
Before Fridays Jobs data the Market was predicting 3-2 interest rates cuts, after the Jobs data it went to split between 2 or 1 cut, the data today pushes that to 2 cuts being the most likely scenario.
Things could still get VERY volatile around FOMC, Please dont assume these readings mean we will see a parabolic bull run starting.
Make no mistake the CPI readings are good for Crypto but all we have done so far is recover some losses from the previous days, the rate and what is said at FOMC will decide if we remain Bullish.
PLEASE NOTE!!
DONT enter high leverage or margin now, every answer Powell gives during the press conference and what he says will move the crypto price, possible a LOT and in ANY direction.
Also note while today is the highest impact news by far, we still have very high impact news coming tomorrow about PPI and unemployement, Also we have BOJ Policy on Friday.
Be Smart
Peace
#ETHETFsApproved #altcoins #BTC #TopCoinsJune2024
The CPI was good for Crypto, but the Funds rate(which wont be effected by todays readings) and FOMC will decide everything.
Firstly the CPI news is great for Crypto, i did say in my post about "Wednesday being Key" would should see a drop of 0.1% in Y.Y we also saw a drop in M.M.
Note these readings will not effect the rates decision today, they will effect what is said at the FOMC press conference though.(Future outlook)
The Jobs market needs to slow to to lower Interest rates.(why friday hurt the crypto market)
I predict we will see a likely outcome that the Powell states 2 Cuts remain the likely possibility, the first being September(this will be slightly Bullish for Crypto)
Before Fridays Jobs data the Market was predicting 3-2 interest rates cuts, after the Jobs data it went to split between 2 or 1 cut, the data today pushes that to 2 cuts being the most likely scenario.
Things could still get VERY volatile around FOMC, Please dont assume these readings mean we will see a parabolic bull run starting.
Make no mistake the CPI readings are good for Crypto but all we have done so far is recover some losses from the previous days, the rate and what is said at FOMC will decide if we remain Bullish.
PLEASE NOTE!!
DONT enter high leverage or margin now, every answer Powell gives during the press conference and what he says will move the crypto price, possible a LOT and in ANY direction.
Also note while today is the highest impact news by far, we still have very high impact news coming tomorrow about PPI and unemployement, Also we have BOJ Policy on Friday.
Be Smart
Peace
#ETHETFsApproved #altcoins #BTC #TopCoinsJune2024
There is still room to fall!
Dont enter mid range.
Firstly if you saw my posts from Saturday and Sunday you will see i clearly stated Friday was NOT a crash, we were not in a dip, we could still fall a lot more.
My reasoning for this is simple,
Since February the Overall Crypto Market cap has been ranging between $2.13T-$2.6T.(weekly)
$2.6 Trillion has been an extremely strong resistance and it is why in many of my previous posts i told people to stop listening to parabolic bull run hype(until 2.6T was broken)
The Total Crypto MC is currently $2.34T, we are in the middle of a VERY consistent and confirmed range.
To me the price action on Crypto in the last day shows the market is pricing in 2 or less interest rate cuts this year, first probaby in September.
The FED decision in the coming months is critical because of (currency)carry trading, they could basically destroy or reverse progress in other struggling economies by keeping their interest rates much higher for longer, this is because huge funds will borrow money in lower Interest rate economies and invest it in high interest rate(secure) economies like the US, basically draining liquidity out of economies that need it, its a vicious circle because this will increase the US inflation and need further Interest rate hikes.
This is why European Countries and Canada lowering their rates has put a spotlight on the FED
I know this is VERY macro but these are the things large funds are looking at and why the economy and Crypto is so unpredictable at the moment and it will be until after the elections or until the FED lowers interest rates.
If you are looking to enter LONG term trades on ANY project my advise is wait until the TOTAL crypto MC is near the range low of $2.13-$2.17T.
There is to much uncertainty currently, around $2.13-$2.17T market cap we have a strong support zone, it offers better entries, at the current TOTAL MC we are just guessing the next direction.
Patience is key now,its the only way you will be profitable long term.
Be smart
Peace
#ETHETFsApproved #altcoins #BTC #Binance200M
Dont enter mid range.
Firstly if you saw my posts from Saturday and Sunday you will see i clearly stated Friday was NOT a crash, we were not in a dip, we could still fall a lot more.
My reasoning for this is simple,
Since February the Overall Crypto Market cap has been ranging between $2.13T-$2.6T.(weekly)
$2.6 Trillion has been an extremely strong resistance and it is why in many of my previous posts i told people to stop listening to parabolic bull run hype(until 2.6T was broken)
The Total Crypto MC is currently $2.34T, we are in the middle of a VERY consistent and confirmed range.
To me the price action on Crypto in the last day shows the market is pricing in 2 or less interest rate cuts this year, first probaby in September.
The FED decision in the coming months is critical because of (currency)carry trading, they could basically destroy or reverse progress in other struggling economies by keeping their interest rates much higher for longer, this is because huge funds will borrow money in lower Interest rate economies and invest it in high interest rate(secure) economies like the US, basically draining liquidity out of economies that need it, its a vicious circle because this will increase the US inflation and need further Interest rate hikes.
This is why European Countries and Canada lowering their rates has put a spotlight on the FED
I know this is VERY macro but these are the things large funds are looking at and why the economy and Crypto is so unpredictable at the moment and it will be until after the elections or until the FED lowers interest rates.
If you are looking to enter LONG term trades on ANY project my advise is wait until the TOTAL crypto MC is near the range low of $2.13-$2.17T.
There is to much uncertainty currently, around $2.13-$2.17T market cap we have a strong support zone, it offers better entries, at the current TOTAL MC we are just guessing the next direction.
Patience is key now,its the only way you will be profitable long term.
Be smart
Peace
#ETHETFsApproved #altcoins #BTC #Binance200M
This price movement is a disgrace.
It shows just how manipulated we are.
There is a very simple reason for the BNB rise and fall in the last week, compare it to other high cap projects, notice any difference?
Yes US economic factors dropped prices of crypto but this rise and fall is also more calculated.
The VC’s are becoming more greedy!
Most newly launched projects on Binance in the last year have crashed in price on launch or shortly after, why? huge sell pressure hitting the market from farmed launchpool rewards.
Not so fast say the VC’s !
Now the VCs who backed the project are not only profiting off buying into the project for 2-5% of what retail can, they are now manipulating the system.
How?
They invest 10s of Millions across hundreds of Binance accounts(there is a single account hourly farming limit) to stake BNB so they can claim a large % of the launchpool rewards.
They dont so much care about the amount farmed, it is more about the illusion on launch, less sell pressure and more stability =more retail fomo buying=higher prices.
They hold farmed tokens and dump on you later.
It is important to note,
VC backed projects usually have a vesting period(a time they cant sell some or all of their tokens), So now they need to find new and inovative ways to fleece retail investors every step of the way, what better way than to have some control of the price action on launch?
Please dont make the mistake of buying into these projects on launch, they are totally anti retail and 100% made for already rich VC investors to profit off Crypto in every way they can.
This is not about any particular project, they could be amazing projects, it is about the amount of money VC investors are making off us over and over again.
This is also why I said before and I will say again, please don’t have your financial wellbeing locked into centralised staking,10-15% of your portfolio max.
*Everything stated above is just my opinion, solely based on research I do into crypto*
Be Smart
Peace
#IOprediction #Binance200M #TopCoinsJune2024 #altcoins
It shows just how manipulated we are.
There is a very simple reason for the BNB rise and fall in the last week, compare it to other high cap projects, notice any difference?
Yes US economic factors dropped prices of crypto but this rise and fall is also more calculated.
The VC’s are becoming more greedy!
Most newly launched projects on Binance in the last year have crashed in price on launch or shortly after, why? huge sell pressure hitting the market from farmed launchpool rewards.
Not so fast say the VC’s !
Now the VCs who backed the project are not only profiting off buying into the project for 2-5% of what retail can, they are now manipulating the system.
How?
They invest 10s of Millions across hundreds of Binance accounts(there is a single account hourly farming limit) to stake BNB so they can claim a large % of the launchpool rewards.
They dont so much care about the amount farmed, it is more about the illusion on launch, less sell pressure and more stability =more retail fomo buying=higher prices.
They hold farmed tokens and dump on you later.
It is important to note,
VC backed projects usually have a vesting period(a time they cant sell some or all of their tokens), So now they need to find new and inovative ways to fleece retail investors every step of the way, what better way than to have some control of the price action on launch?
Please dont make the mistake of buying into these projects on launch, they are totally anti retail and 100% made for already rich VC investors to profit off Crypto in every way they can.
This is not about any particular project, they could be amazing projects, it is about the amount of money VC investors are making off us over and over again.
This is also why I said before and I will say again, please don’t have your financial wellbeing locked into centralised staking,10-15% of your portfolio max.
*Everything stated above is just my opinion, solely based on research I do into crypto*
Be Smart
Peace
#IOprediction #Binance200M #TopCoinsJune2024 #altcoins
Wednesday is KEY!!
Nothing else really matters for crypto right now.
I am going to try keep this simple for newer traders.
On Wednesday we have CPI news, the Federal funds rate and FOMC meeting.
The FED funds rate will remain at 5.5%, this is a near certainty and priced in.
CPI data is expected to be as predicted with a possible drop of 0.1% in Y/Y
The FOMC meeting will likely state the rates will need further progresss, it could be volatile during the event but will likely just mean the FED needs more data in coming readings.(shocks do happen)
The Jobs data on friday which shook the crypto price was because this makes a July cut nearly impossible, it also makes it more likely we see 1 interest rate cut and not 2 this year.
If you dont understand interest rates, simply we want them to drop, it would lead to more money going into crypto.
My thoughts,
I feel the market is slightly bearish for most ALTs at the moment.
Important to note is the BTC spot ETFS have had 19 days of positive flows, to me this shows that institutional investors are still seeing value at $65k-$70k BTC prices.
I feel the large investors and funds are seeing BTC as a store of value and it is unlikely we see BTC dominance fall enough to start a parabolic ALT cycle.
At the CURRENT market prices i feel only BTC, ETH are worth investing a large part of your portfolio in.(Long Term)
I think other projects like SOL,BNB,TON,DOGE and a few others are also solid long term plays just not for most of your funds.
If you want to invest in other projects now i think only allocate 10-15% of your bankroll.(Long term spot)
I still hold many coins,tokens but all at lower prices, i think we might see further price drops in the weeks-months to come, i dont think we are currently in a dip.
This is just my view, i dont want to sway your decisions if you are making an educated and researched decision, i dont follow every crypto project so you might know a lot more about a certain project than i do.
I am always happy to answer questions.
Peace
#ETHETFsApproved #BTC #altcoins #TopCoinsJune2024
Nothing else really matters for crypto right now.
I am going to try keep this simple for newer traders.
On Wednesday we have CPI news, the Federal funds rate and FOMC meeting.
The FED funds rate will remain at 5.5%, this is a near certainty and priced in.
CPI data is expected to be as predicted with a possible drop of 0.1% in Y/Y
The FOMC meeting will likely state the rates will need further progresss, it could be volatile during the event but will likely just mean the FED needs more data in coming readings.(shocks do happen)
The Jobs data on friday which shook the crypto price was because this makes a July cut nearly impossible, it also makes it more likely we see 1 interest rate cut and not 2 this year.
If you dont understand interest rates, simply we want them to drop, it would lead to more money going into crypto.
My thoughts,
I feel the market is slightly bearish for most ALTs at the moment.
Important to note is the BTC spot ETFS have had 19 days of positive flows, to me this shows that institutional investors are still seeing value at $65k-$70k BTC prices.
I feel the large investors and funds are seeing BTC as a store of value and it is unlikely we see BTC dominance fall enough to start a parabolic ALT cycle.
At the CURRENT market prices i feel only BTC, ETH are worth investing a large part of your portfolio in.(Long Term)
I think other projects like SOL,BNB,TON,DOGE and a few others are also solid long term plays just not for most of your funds.
If you want to invest in other projects now i think only allocate 10-15% of your bankroll.(Long term spot)
I still hold many coins,tokens but all at lower prices, i think we might see further price drops in the weeks-months to come, i dont think we are currently in a dip.
This is just my view, i dont want to sway your decisions if you are making an educated and researched decision, i dont follow every crypto project so you might know a lot more about a certain project than i do.
I am always happy to answer questions.
Peace
#ETHETFsApproved #BTC #altcoins #TopCoinsJune2024
Stop forcing yourself to trade!
Nothing is going to happen.
Im sure a lot of you are entering trades now trying to recoup losses from yesterday, that is a mistake.
Firstly what happened yesterday was not a crash, buying now is not buying the dip, the market could still fall more, it could still fall a lot more.
This is not FUD or to spread doubt.
Next week on Wednesday will determine the Crypto price direction, once the CPI data and FOMC press conference has finished.
The Jobs and earnings data from yesterday was bad for crypto because it shows interest rates could stay higher for longer, it also keeps an interest rate increase on the table, this is unlikely but would be terrible for Crypto.
For those who dont understand, higher interest rates are bad for crypto because the cost of borrowing money is higher and also the reward for saving money
Higher interest rates-less borrowing and more saving.
Lower interest rates-more money going into "risk on" Crypto.
It sucks but its reality, none of us have the money to move the market, the people and funds who do are all waiting or trying to pre empt what happens on wednesday.
No moves are going to happen now, especially after what happened yesterday.
Dont lose money trying to guess the market now, everything you lose now is bankroll for future profitable trading conditions.
Peace
#Binance55thProject(IO) #altcoins #BTC #ETHETFsApproved
Nothing is going to happen.
Im sure a lot of you are entering trades now trying to recoup losses from yesterday, that is a mistake.
Firstly what happened yesterday was not a crash, buying now is not buying the dip, the market could still fall more, it could still fall a lot more.
This is not FUD or to spread doubt.
Next week on Wednesday will determine the Crypto price direction, once the CPI data and FOMC press conference has finished.
The Jobs and earnings data from yesterday was bad for crypto because it shows interest rates could stay higher for longer, it also keeps an interest rate increase on the table, this is unlikely but would be terrible for Crypto.
For those who dont understand, higher interest rates are bad for crypto because the cost of borrowing money is higher and also the reward for saving money
Higher interest rates-less borrowing and more saving.
Lower interest rates-more money going into "risk on" Crypto.
It sucks but its reality, none of us have the money to move the market, the people and funds who do are all waiting or trying to pre empt what happens on wednesday.
No moves are going to happen now, especially after what happened yesterday.
Dont lose money trying to guess the market now, everything you lose now is bankroll for future profitable trading conditions.
Peace
#Binance55thProject(IO) #altcoins #BTC #ETHETFsApproved
