While $BTC and TOTAL3 in total continue to have a protracted sideways trend, I will make a large review of the main blockchain metrics in order to understand what state the cue ball is in now and can anything prevent further growth?

1) Conclusions from exchanges. After inflows against the background of the actual approval of spot ETFs for ether (sale of facts), large-scale outflows were restored across exchanges with the current equivalent of almost $0.5 billion per day (purely for BTC + ETH). The shortage of available crypto on exchanges is increasing, which is rapidly bringing the crypto-inflation factor closer to zero. This is a plus

2) The power of buyers. Recovering against the backdrop of large-scale outflows. That is, the number of stables on exchanges remains greater than the number of cryptocurrencies available for purchase. Another plus

3) Short-term buyers (STH up to 1 month) sit with minimal profit from the average entry (1-2%) after a 60-day series of losses. Such a profit does not contribute to the desire for fixation. The sword of Damocles does not hang from the STH side. This is a plus

4) Relative, realized profit in the system. It is calculated depending on the supply circulating in USD, after which it is smoothed by the monthly moving average. It begins to grow largely due to the cohort of medium-term holders who are pulling the blankets of the average profit in the system (6M-2G). After BTC returned to ~70k $, the profit in the system reached 1% of the amount of the circulating supply, which is an average figure typical for the calm phase of a confident bull market. Overall neutral

5) The same cannot be said about the ratio of realized profits to losses (the number of trading participants is taken into account here, and not just the total profit. Even if it does not lie at the minimum level, it is quite close to it. Only 1.5 - 2 bucks of profit per $1 loss This is the most common indicator for bull markets. Relative plus.

6) Number of wallets with large balances (more than 1000 BTC). Steady growth, except for a dip at the end of May. This is due to the distribution of Mt.Gox, can be taken out of context. Plus

7) Funding in the system remains in the positive zone, but is still far from the impulse values ​​in the first half of March. On average across exchanges, the standard is 0.01%. The cost of borrowing is low, there are no high leverage in the system, a cascade of liquidations in such conditions is extremely unlikely, because to the nearest expressed long density, the price needs to go down at least 20%. Another plus

🔶 Conclusions:

• With a BTC price of $69-70k, the market is not long-term, the current state is equilibrium

• There are not a large number of weak hands on top that throw off their BTC at any boiling point. More precisely, they always exist, but now their number is minimal

• Inflation in BTC and ETH is rapidly falling due to large-scale withdrawals, which automatically leads to a trend of shortages and a concomitant rise in asset prices

• To start a strong downward decline from the current ones, you need a good reason. For example, an actual increase in the Fed key rate, a hack of a large exchange, a refusal in the S-1 form for ETH, etc. things. There are no such reasons yet, and the likelihood of their occurrence is low (but not zero)

• Bitcoin has gained a fairly high density of traded volume in the range of $65 - $71k. It can be assumed that exiting this sideways trend will send the price by the same $6,000 towards the breakdown (up, this is $77,000)

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