Is BTC bullish momentum over??? Insights from Chart Veteran Peter Brandt
Renowned chart analyst Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor LLC, known for his bullish stance on Bitcoin (BTC), has shifted his outlook. In a recent report to CoinDesk, Brandt suggested that Bitcoin's upward momentum may have peaked, diverging from his previous forecast extending until September 2025, with price targets up to $200,000. Brandt's new projection is based on "exponential decay," noting Bitcoin's historical 4-year bull/bear cycles, each approximately 80% less potent than the previous.
"If the statistical constant of 80% decay remains true, Bitcoin's record high of $73,835 on March 14, 2024, may have already aligned with historical Exponential Decay," he added.
Brandt famously predicted Bitcoin's collapse in 2018 to under $4,000. The initial rally saw prices surge from $0.01 to $31.91, marking a remarkable 3,391x increase in less than two years. Subsequent bull markets have been longer but smaller in magnitude, consistently experiencing an approximate 80% exponential decay.
Bitcoin's recent rally to record highs above $73,000 in March represented a 79.1% upswing from the bear market low of $15,473 following the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX in November 2022.
According to the theory of exponential decay, if historical patterns persist, the bull market may have concluded.
Despite historical patterns, the impact of Bitcoin's quadrennial mining reward halvings on bullish trends, including the recent fourth halving on April 20, may alter future outcomes. While the prevailing sentiment anticipates a bullish breakout amid Bitcoin's consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000, Peter Brandt maintains that the "Pre/Post Halving" cycle suggests a potential peak in the range of $140,000 to $160,000 by late summer/early fall 2025. This thesis remains the primary driver of his Bitcoin ownership status.
However, Brandt remains vigilant regarding the influence of the exponential theory on the ongoing bull trend that began in November 2022.