Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+ bps:

Jan 3, 2001
- S&P 500 fell ~39% next 448 days
- Unemployment rose another 2.1%
- Recession

Sep 18, 2007
- S&P 500 fell ~54% next 372 days
- Unemployment rose another 5.3%
- Recession

Sep 18, 2024
- ?
- ?
- ?

do you think we will have a recession?