What's Happening with U.S. Retail Sales Data? 📉
Recent trends show that downward data revisions are becoming the new normal:
- 7 out of the last 9 months have seen U.S. retail sales revised down.
- 2024 revisions: 4 months have been adjusted lower by 0.2%-0.3%.
- June's sales were revised down by 0.2 percentage points.
The Pattern:
1. Initial Data: Released better than expected, suggesting the economy is on track.
2. Subsequent Revisions: Data is quietly adjusted downward in the following month when focus shifts to newer figures.
What’s Happening? These revisions could indicate that initial reports are overly optimistic or that the underlying economic strength is weaker than it appears at first glance. It highlights the importance of considering revisions when assessing economic health.
