Why Avalanche Might Not Hit Its All-Time High During the Next Bull Run

Recently, I've seen several social media posts predicting that $AVAX could reach $200, $300, or even $500 in the next bull run. This surprised me, as I don't believe AVAX will approach those figures.

To be clear, my skepticism has nothing to do with Avalanche's project or technology. In fact, I'm a big fan and believe Avalanche will be one of the few projects still around in a decade. However, I think AVAX won't hit its previous all-time high (ATH) during the next bull run for one simple reason: Circulating Supply.

AVAX reached its ATH in November 2021, with the price peaking at around $145 USD. At that time, the circulating supply was approximately 230 million, giving the asset a market cap of about $33 billion. Since 2021, the circulating supply of AVAX has steadily increased and will continue to do so until it reaches the total supply of 443 million.

Currently, AVAX has a circulating supply of nearly 400 million. For AVAX to reach its ATH price again, it would require a market cap of $58 billion, almost twice its previous ATH market cap. While this isn't entirely impossible, I find it unlikely that Avalanche will double its market cap compared to the last bull run. Even if my assumption is wrong, the numbers show how improbable it is for AVAX to reach prices of $200, $300, or $500.

For perspective, a token price of $500 would result in a market cap of $200 billion. Despite this, I still believe AVAX has a bright future and solid potential in the next bull run. However, it's crucial to maintain realistic targets.

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